I think Substrate is a $1 Billion Fraud: Part 1

[hist78]

Every dollar lost becomes tuition for the most expensive MBA program in the world, the one where the classroom is the market and the professors are your failures.

I like it too, after all it’s not my money. Those investors are essentially funding my wonderful learning experience.

 

[Xebec]

After all, it would be strange if a company CEO or even the US President invited a journalist for an interview but simultaneously required the journalist to sign an NDA that restricts what he/she can report.

Unfortunately, this type of situation is surprisingly common: https://www.techspot.com/news/107962-nvidia-rtx-5060-launch-erosion-independent-gpu-reviews.html

Reviewers are required to sign NDAs for NVidia GPUs (normal), but they're also given requirements on how the reviews should be conducted. For example, reviewers were told they were not allowed to compare the 50 series vs the previous gen 40 series... to avoid showing how small performance gains were this generation.

..

Nvidia also banned a few reviewers (later reversed after public outcry) for not posting positive reviews/strictly following this "guidance" about their products: www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/kbylt3/nvidia_apologizes_reverses_decision_to_ban

You're very right to point out the issues here; Substrate + Semianalysis feels a bit like this conflict.

 

[count]

It's so interesting.

>But here's what most people don't understand about failure at this scale: it teaches you things success never could. Every burned bridge becomes a lesson in structural engineering. Every wrong turn becomes a data point. Every dollar lost becomes tuition for the most expensive MBA program in the world, the one where the classroom is the market and the professors are your failures.
Source: https://www.longjourney.vc/news/cyans-substrate-tattoo

But, Billionaire Peter Thiel: ‘Failure is massively overrated’
PayPal co-founder and billionaire investor Peter Thiel has a different opinion. “I think failure is massively overrated,” he tells author Tim Ferriss in ″Tools of Titans.″ “I think people actually do not learn very much from failure.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/25/paypal-billionaire-peter-thiel-failure-is-massively-overrated.html

I'd contend that Intel knows a thing or two about failure.

Kidding aside there is a massive target on the back of ASML right now, and if there was a quick path to 2nm without EUV China would be there already.

 

[lefty]

The Substrate story is becoming even more interesting. Below is an article from one of the Substrate's investors, a venture capital firm called Long Journey:


"And you know what? That's exactly why it might work. Because James Proud has something ASML's executives don't have, something TSMC's board doesn't have: the bone-deep knowledge of what it's like to fail, to rebuild, and to come back with a chip on your shoulder the size of Texas.

He's not trying to build a better mousetrap. He's trying to build the mousetrap factory that saves Western civilization. The stakes couldn't be higher, and the founder couldn't be more battle-tested."

Talking about the tattoo:

"Well, ultimately it's a symbol. A symbol of belief in James Proud and his team. He was forged in fire and came out unbroken."

Source: https://www.longjourney.vc/news/cyans-substrate-tattoo

View attachment 3826

It beggers belief that people this naive are left in charge of millions of venture capital funds

 

[EganVector]

Are Adam Neumann and Elizabeth Holmes on the board of directors for Substrate?

 

[hist78]

Unfortunately, this type of situation is surprisingly common: https://www.techspot.com/news/107962-nvidia-rtx-5060-launch-erosion-independent-gpu-reviews.html

Reviewers are required to sign NDAs for NVidia GPUs (normal), but they're also given requirements on how the reviews should be conducted. For example, reviewers were told they were not allowed to compare the 50 series vs the previous gen 40 series... to avoid showing how small performance gains were this generation.

..

Nvidia also banned a few reviewers (later reversed after public outcry) for not posting positive reviews/strictly following this "guidance" about their products: www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/kbylt3/nvidia_apologizes_reverses_decision_to_ban

You're very right to point out the issues here; Substrate + Semianalysis feels a bit like this conflict.

It’s common for companies or individuals to try to influence the tone and direction of reporting. But ultimately, the authors must put integrity above everything else.

Take the SemiAnalysis' Substrate report as an example. On one hand, they claim authority because they have access to Substrate’s internal information. On the other hand, they also can disclaim responsibility for any inaccuracies by pointing to NDAs signed by some members of the author team.

In the same report, they wrote:

“Note we have worked with Substrate since as far back as 2022, but the technical analysis here was by team members who did not have access to that NDA information.”

Does this imply that Substrate has been paying SemiAnalysis for services since 2022? If so, that introduces a clear business relationship that readers deserve to understand up front.

I don’t expect the rigor of a PhD dissertation from this type of industry report, but at least we should know whether the analysis is an objective technical evaluation or something closer to marketing material.

 

[MKWVentures]

It’s common for companies or individuals to try to influence the tone and direction of reporting. But ultimately, the authors must put integrity above everything else.

Couple things on this:
As as consultant, I always had NDAs with Client. I had NDA clients who I was doing business development for. the writing in the NDA is that I cannot give out info the company does not want to give out. But I did sales pitches. Every employee of every company is in a similar situation. the key is to be honest and disclose what you can and cannot talk about. This is not uncommon for consultants or employees. Intel people say "our process is amazing and had leading edge leakage data. I cannot tell you the gate materials"

That said: Substrate is an idea that has not been fully checked out. Calling it a game changer is not correct. Calling it fraud is not correct (unless you have a lawyer and a proof).

If its real, lets discuss it at a lithography conference @Fred Chen can provide more technical analysis

 

[hist78]

Are Adam Neumann and Elizabeth Holmes on the board of directors for Substrate?

I can't find any name for Substrate's board of directors so I can't make any comments.

Until recent years, I didn’t realize how out of touch a board of directors can sometimes be with the company they are supposed to know intimately.

The scandal of Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos really changed my view a lot. According to Google search, Theranos’ board of directors used to include:

Board of directors in October 2015. Before a corporate restructuring in late October 2015, the board included:

founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes,
president and COO Sunny Balwani,
former CEO of Bechtel Group Riley P. Bechtel,
retired Marine Corps General James "Jim" Mattis,
former U.S. Secretaries of State George P. Shultz and Henry A. Kissinger,
former U.S. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry,
former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn,
retired U.S. Navy Admiral Gary Roughead.
former Wells Fargo CEO Richard Kovacevich,
former CDC director William H. Foege,
heart and lung transplant surgeon and former U.S. Senator Dr. William Frist.

Board of directors in May 2016:

Following the 2015 restructuring, the board was reduced to five members, and a new Board of Counselors was created, with Kissinger and Shultz moving to it. The resulting board consisted of

Elizabeth Holmes,
Riley P. Bechtel,
lawyer David Boies, William H. Foege, Richard Kovacevich,
General James "Jim" Mattis.
In May 2016, Fabrizio Bonanni joined the board, while Sunny Balwani resigned.

 

[MKWVentures]

I can't find any name for Substrate's board of directors so I can't make any comments.

Until recent years, I didn’t realize how out of touch a board of directors can sometimes be with the company they are supposed to know intimately.

If every overhyped technology that was going to be a game changer was called fraud after failing to deliver, we would need about 1000 more prisons for fraud.

Boards have MUCH MUCH less control of a company and knowledge of operations than you think. Ask LBT

 

[Daniel Nenni]

I can't find any name for Substrate's board of directors so I can't make any comments.

Until recent years, I didn’t realize how out of touch a board of directors can sometimes be with the company they are supposed to know intimately.

The scandal of Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos really changed my view a lot. According to Google search, Theranos’ board of directors used to include:

Board of directors in October 2015. Before a corporate restructuring in late October 2015, the board included:

founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes,
president and COO Sunny Balwani,
former CEO of Bechtel Group Riley P. Bechtel,
retired Marine Corps General James "Jim" Mattis,
former U.S. Secretaries of State George P. Shultz and Henry A. Kissinger,
former U.S. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry,
former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn,
retired U.S. Navy Admiral Gary Roughead.
former Wells Fargo CEO Richard Kovacevich,
former CDC director William H. Foege,
heart and lung transplant surgeon and former U.S. Senator Dr. William Frist.

Board of directors in May 2016:

Following the 2015 restructuring, the board was reduced to five members, and a new Board of Counselors was created, with Kissinger and Shultz moving to it. The resulting board consisted of

Elizabeth Holmes,
Riley P. Bechtel,
lawyer David Boies, William H. Foege, Richard Kovacevich,
General James "Jim" Mattis.
In May 2016, Fabrizio Bonanni joined the board, while Sunny Balwani resigned.

Any idea how much the Theranos board was paid? Money does sway opinions…

 

[hist78]

Any idea how much the Theranos board was paid? Money does sway opinions…

When I saw that Henry Kissinger was on Theranos’s board, I thought it must be worth a ton of cash. And he was one of the two former Secretary of State on the Theranos' board.

 

[Xebec]

I've been trying to get more useful information about Substrate.

There is an interview with their CEO dated 10/30/25 .. that is behind a paywall: https://stratechery.com/2025/an-int...out-building-a-disruptive-foundry-in-america/

The CEO tweets or retweets about once per month. The posts are pretty random and I did not see anything about Substrate, until very recently (4 days) where he reposted the Semianalysis article on Substrate.

Subtrate's X account has very little in the way of posts or replies.

It's not unusual for startups to be 'stealthy', but there just isn't much out there about Substrate. I can't find any information about any possible board of directors or find any interesting names attached to the company on the technical side.

I guess we'll have to wait and see if anything comes of this over the coming months/years..

 

[EganVector]

If every overhyped technology that was going to be a game changer was called fraud after failing to deliver, we would need about 1000 more prisons for fraud.

Boards have MUCH MUCH less control of a company and knowledge of operations than you think. Ask LBT

I suggested those two as a joke, but clearly some people didn't get it and I'm really glad I didn't use Max Bialystock. MKWVentures wins the internet for today; truer words have not been said.