Wafer price per node
- Thread starter siliconbruh999
- Start date
siliconbruh999
Well-known member
Really also if you can tell which family
MKWVentures
Moderator
Reminder. TSMC price for the same node varies a huge amount by customer.
hist78
Well-known member
I tried to find the sources for the pricing data. It appears to have first been shown in a LinkedIn article about seven months ago, where @Daniel Nenni actually commented on it.
#semiconductor #semiconductor #wafercost #costperwafer | Joel Polanco | 23 comments
Lots of news in the #semiconductor world last Friday! I won't speculate on any acquisition rumors but rather talk a little a bit about a VERY important metric that tech companies (software, hardware, AI) should keep an eye on. What is that metric? Cost per wafer The cost of a wafer depends on...
www.linkedin.com
However, the author still didn’t mention where he got the data.
siliconbruh999
Well-known member
LMAO So Dan replied on this post and now this post came full circle to be answered by Dan again but this time on semi-wiki instead of linkedin?I tried to find the sources for the pricing data. It appears to have first been shown in a LinkedIn article about seven months ago, where @Daniel Nenni actually commented on it.
#semiconductor #semiconductor #wafercost #costperwafer | Joel Polanco | 23 comments
Lots of news in the #semiconductor world last Friday! I won't speculate on any acquisition rumors but rather talk a little a bit about a VERY important metric that tech companies (software, hardware, AI) should keep an eye on. What is that metric? Cost per wafer The cost of a wafer depends on...
However, the author still didn’t mention where he got the data
hist78
Well-known member
LMAO So Dan replied on this post and now this post came full circle to be answered by Dan again but this time on semi-wiki instead of linkedin?
The strange and funny thing is that author reply on @Daniel Nenni comment (on LinkedIn) by telling him to check a post published on SemiWiki.com.
That post was written by Daniel himself.
chipsntexas
Member
The circle of life...keeps going round and round.The strange and funny thing is that author reply on @Daniel Nenni comment (on LinkedIn) by telling him to check a post published on SemiWiki.com.
That post was written by Daniel himself.
View attachment 3641
didn't tsmc just announced a 15% hike on adv node wafer price? It seems these hikes are becoming more routine. They are fully leverage top dog positionIn before everyone says "those prices are too high" but without any data to prove it one way or another...
Oh wait, too late
Do you really think AnySilicon is a reliable source for wafer pricing? It is not. Please do not post data from AnySilicon. That is the worst site, no credibility, a total Design and Reuse wanna be. I have zero respect for cheap imitations.
siliconbruh999
Well-known member
I didn't know that
Doing some searching around, here are some other "analysts" estimates for TSMC advanced nodes:
N5:
Morgan Stanley - $16000-$17000 (2020, via Tomshardware)
Gartner - "$16000 range for early production"
Trendforce - $12000-$13500 "as yields improved 2022-2023
N3:
Morgan Stanley - "$20,000 or higher" , "slightly above this in 2025"
Trendforce - "less than $20,000" (2023-2024), "expects double digit hikes in 2025"
Creative Strategies - "$18,000" "specific to A17/A18 wafers, compares to $16,000 that Apple paid for N5"
Susquehanna International Group - "$20,000+"
N2:
Morgan Stanley ("via reddit rumors") - $30,000, "aligns with 10% recent hikes"
Commercial Times via Trendforce - $30,000
The Information Network (who?) - ~ $25,000
Seeking Alpha (another favorite ;-) ) - $24,570
Based on this forum, I get the impression that analysts just take an estimated cost for a previous node and multiply by about 1.5X with no actual knowledge on costs (I assume you can't just call TSMC and ask without a $$ NDA and lawyers ).
I am really curious though what the real numbers are -- even a better estimate.
N5:
Morgan Stanley - $16000-$17000 (2020, via Tomshardware)
Gartner - "$16000 range for early production"
Trendforce - $12000-$13500 "as yields improved 2022-2023
N3:
Morgan Stanley - "$20,000 or higher" , "slightly above this in 2025"
Trendforce - "less than $20,000" (2023-2024), "expects double digit hikes in 2025"
Creative Strategies - "$18,000" "specific to A17/A18 wafers, compares to $16,000 that Apple paid for N5"
Susquehanna International Group - "$20,000+"
N2:
Morgan Stanley ("via reddit rumors") - $30,000, "aligns with 10% recent hikes"
Commercial Times via Trendforce - $30,000
The Information Network (who?) - ~ $25,000
Seeking Alpha (another favorite ;-) ) - $24,570
Based on this forum, I get the impression that analysts just take an estimated cost for a previous node and multiply by about 1.5X with no actual knowledge on costs (I assume you can't just call TSMC and ask without a $$ NDA and lawyers
). I am really curious though what the real numbers are -- even a better estimate.
siliconbruh999
Well-known member
I know a way just take a Job at Intel/AMD/Nvidia and Apple that way you can find out
"Hi, my name is Sam Altman and I'd like to place an order for $3T in wafers, how many AI chips can I get?"I know a way just take a Job at Intel/AMD/Nvidia and Apple that way you can find out
siliconbruh999
Well-known member
Even better set up 4 companies each company want to Tape Out Chip on different process
6nm/5nm/3nm/2nm call TSMC hey I am "XYZ" fill here with appropriate name and I want to tape out chips what would be the price.
This i based on Huwawei passing ban idea
.
Doing some searching around, here are some other "analysts" estimates for TSMC advanced nodes:
N5:
Morgan Stanley - $16000-$17000 (2020, via Tomshardware)
Gartner - "$16000 range for early production"
Trendforce - $12000-$13500 "as yields improved 2022-2023
N3:
Morgan Stanley - "$20,000 or higher" , "slightly above this in 2025"
Trendforce - "less than $20,000" (2023-2024), "expects double digit hikes in 2025"
Creative Strategies - "$18,000" "specific to A17/A18 wafers, compares to $16,000 that Apple paid for N5"
Susquehanna International Group - "$20,000+"
N2:
Morgan Stanley ("via reddit rumors") - $30,000, "aligns with 10% recent hikes"
Commercial Times via Trendforce - $30,000
The Information Network (who?) - ~ $25,000
Seeking Alpha (another favorite ;-) ) - $24,570
Based on this forum, I get the impression that analysts just take an estimated cost for a previous node and multiply by about 1.5X with no actual knowledge on costs (I assume you can't just call TSMC and ask without a $$ NDA and lawyers
I am really curious though what the real numbers are -- even a better estimate.
The only thing I can tell you is that those numbers are wrong. These analysts should be called guessalysts.
I can give our case:Doing some searching around, here are some other "analysts" estimates for TSMC advanced nodes:
N5:
Morgan Stanley - $16000-$17000 (2020, via Tomshardware)
Gartner - "$16000 range for early production"
Trendforce - $12000-$13500 "as yields improved 2022-2023
N3:
Morgan Stanley - "$20,000 or higher" , "slightly above this in 2025"
Trendforce - "less than $20,000" (2023-2024), "expects double digit hikes in 2025"
Creative Strategies - "$18,000" "specific to A17/A18 wafers, compares to $16,000 that Apple paid for N5"
Susquehanna International Group - "$20,000+"
N2:
Morgan Stanley ("via reddit rumors") - $30,000, "aligns with 10% recent hikes"
Commercial Times via Trendforce - $30,000
The Information Network (who?) - ~ $25,000
Seeking Alpha (another favorite ;-) ) - $24,570
Based on this forum, I get the impression that analysts just take an estimated cost for a previous node and multiply by about 1.5X with no actual knowledge on costs (I assume you can't just call TSMC and ask without a $$ NDA and lawyers
I am really curious though what the real numbers are -- even a better estimate.
Through GUC , N5 ~= 18000. (GUC with 20% markup?)
We are trying the second resource N5 ~=16000. (they told us 5% markup)
If N5 is 12000, we are way overpaying.
We are ~500 wafer/month, we are not small customer.