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Trump's Undersecretary of Defense for Policy repeatedly said TSMC fabs should be destroyed if China invades Taiwan

Daniel Nenni said:
Destroying 70% of the semiconductor manufacturing capacity (Taiwan) is lunacy.
Click to expand...

Attacking Europe's largest military with only 240000 troops was a lunacy too.

Most of preeminent political figures in the world don't have even basic military experience.

I kept reading Western "defence experts" in NYT, the Hill, the Economist, and these senior policy people sound like they know less than a conscript.

Don't be surprised if Yale educated lawyers will make very bad military moves, if they call M113 a tank, and are surprised by how lethal the artillery is.
 
Fred Chen said:
That would be impossible to happen:

www.tomshardware.com

Taiwanese law prevents TSMC from producing 2nm chips overseas, Taiwanese govt official confirms

But it will certainly be able to make them abroad later on.
www.tomshardware.com www.tomshardware.com

Taiwanese regulations require domestic chipmakers to manufacture only chips using previous-generation fabrication processes at their overseas facilities, keeping the most advanced technology within the country...While this is not said directly, these regulations are meant to ensure that Taiwan in general, and TSMC in particular, remains a key business hub for the world's leading chip designers that require leading-edge process technologies, and which all happen to be from the U.S.
But hopefully, TSMC should be smarter to use less electricity than projected: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/...4-of-taiwans-electricity-consumption-by-2030/
Click to expand...

Not impossible, laws change. It would however weaken the Taiwan Silicon Shield so I do not see it happening. All of TSMC leading edge R&D happens in Taiwan. If Taiwan disappeared today the fabs outside of Taiwan would be limited in life. This is the same reason why Intel R&D needs to continue. Semiconductor innovation depends on both Intel and TSMC.
 
It's obviously not only the fabs themselves, but an even bigger, and more expensive supply chain in front of them. For a lot of non-trivially replaceable chemicals, Taiwan is the worldwide single source.

The science of ultra-pure solvents is happening entirely behind the doors of a few chem companies in Taoyuan. There are no academic publications on anything of that, only chief chemist poaching for eye watering sums.

Fluoropolymers don't produce particles people think, and for all practical reasons of 199X era chipmaking that would've been true. But today, it's understood that they do flake off in extremely low volumes, but that is enough to screw up both wafers, and equipment. So, Taiwan is a single source for hard ultra-low-particle-count high temperature fluoropolymers. The material from which wafer handling chucks for high temp, plasma exposed environments are made does not even have a generic chemical name, only a catalogue number.

Rebuilding semi industry outside of TW will be impossible without substituting all these chemicals, and the examples above are just peanuts.
 
Paul2 said:
It's obviously not only the fabs themselves, but an even bigger, and more expensive supply chain in front of them. For a lot of non-trivially replaceable chemicals, Taiwan is the worldwide single source.

The science of ultra-pure solvents is happening entirely behind the doors of a few chem companies in Taoyuan. There are no academic publications on anything of that, only chief chemist poaching for eye watering sums.

Fluoropolymers don't produce particles people think, and for all practical reasons of 199X era chipmaking that would've been true. But today, it's understood that they do flake off in extremely low volumes, but that is enough to screw up both wafers, and equipment. So, Taiwan is a single source for hard ultra-low-particle-count high temperature fluoropolymers. The material from which wafer handling chucks for high temp, plasma exposed environments are made does not even have a generic chemical name, only a catalogue number.

Rebuilding semi industry outside of TW will be impossible without substituting all these chemicals, and the examples above are just peanuts.
Click to expand...

Hopefully Elon Musk knows this. Maybe we should tweet it on the site formerly known as Twitter? :ROFLMAO:
 
OneEng said:
Good word "lunacy".

I think the real reason it won't happen is because Trump is very transactional. Lots of very very wealthy people are not going to want the US to plunge into recession (or worse) over night. That is the reason I think the threat is empty.

Here is the process:
1) Say something scary
2) People who will lose lots of wealth come to you concerned for their life's wealth
3) Get something from them they would not otherwise have been willing to give you
4) Miraculously change your mind about the scary thing.
5) Rince and Repeat
Click to expand...
Sounds like Trump is using a Texas Hold'em mindset as president, well gee that must be interesting :)
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Just like last time, it will be fun to watch. :ROFLMAO: My hope is that Trump can get Russia out of Ukraine and keep China out of Taiwan. For a good poker player that should not be a problem.
Click to expand...
Oh, I would be surprised if Ukraine survives the next 4 years. Trump's idea of ending the war is to give Putin whatever he wants. This is fairly easy for Trump to do since there are little to no economic costs to people in the US if this happens.

Might be interesting to see how Poland and the Baltic States take such a move though. I think Putin would find things much more difficult should F35's start striking strategic targets and air defense systems throughout Russia.

Taiwan, on the other hand, WAY too many rich people in the US (and throughout the world) have their hands in a REALLY sweet cookie jars all linked in some way to that Island. Trump, for some unknown reason, has always had a chip on his shoulder about China as well. I am sure that Xi could settle his "chip" with a bit of cash to him and his buddies, but so far it seems like Xi would rather rattle sabers than kiss the ring.

I'm still bettin that Taiwan is safe for the next 4 years at least.
 
Barnsley said:
At a political level yes!
Click to expand...
not just political and policy induced costs/incentives.

Especially when it comes to fields that are more software intensive, their engineers are still a lot cheaper and are not much less skillful. Then you look at sales and marketing, legal, healthcare, environmental, and even cost of capital, all that accumulate to significant differences.


It is not just goods you see on Temu and Alibaba that have a lower cost structure, it is across the board. It is just cheaper to live and make things (once you know how) in China, period.

Fot high-tech stuff, their cost advantage may have narrowed tangibly in the past two decades, but the bad news (for the US) is that the knowledge gap has narrowed much, much more.
 
bilau said:
not just political and policy induced costs/incentives.

Especially when it comes to fields that are more software intensive, their engineers are still a lot cheaper and are not much less skillful. Then you look at sales and marketing, legal, healthcare, environmental, and even cost of capital, all that accumulate to significant differences.


It is not just goods you see on Temu and Alibaba that have a lower cost structure, it is across the board. It is just cheaper to live and make things (once you know how) in China, period.

Fot high-tech stuff, their cost advantage may have narrowed tangibly in the past two decades, but the bad news (for the US) is that the knowledge gap has narrowed much, much more.
Click to expand...
Taiwan has one of the best government sponsored tax payer funded healthcare in the world. TSMC does not need to cover health care for their employees AFAIK.

I would think this makes up the lions share of the difference followed by all other factors already mentioned.

How many high paid engineers do you think TSMC has in a manufacturing plant? The main development work is still performed in Taiwan, correct?
 
OneEng said:
Taiwan has one of the best government sponsored tax payer funded healthcare in the world. TSMC does not need to cover health care for their employees AFAIK.

I would think this makes up the lions share of the difference followed by all other factors already mentioned.

How many high paid engineers do you think TSMC has in a manufacturing plant? The main development work is still performed in Taiwan, correct?
Click to expand...
Not just main R&D everything is in Taiwan not just TSMC but their OEM/ODMs partners as well
 
OneEng said:
Oh, I would be surprised if Ukraine survives the next 4 years. Trump's idea of ending the war is to give Putin whatever he wants. This is fairly easy for Trump to do since there are little to no economic costs to people in the US if this happens.
Click to expand...

My advise for Ukraine would be to quickly build thermonuclear weapons, and destroy Moscow. Should Russian early warning system then fire on USA automatically, well, let it be. Ukraine and Kazakhstan have tons of plutonium in storage.
 
Paul2 said:
My advise for Ukraine would be to quickly build thermonuclear weapons, and destroy Moscow. Should Russian early warning system then fire on USA automatically, well, let it be. Ukraine and Kazakhstan have tons of plutonium in storage.
Click to expand...
I honestly recommend you read "Nuclear War: A Scenario" by Annie Jacobsen.

It's way too easy for nukes to start flying all over the globe because of policies like "Fire on Warning". The end of the human species is not worth some land.

(Going further, is it worth the 400-800K lives, and millions of additional lives completely destroyed that have occured so far? And we're still at risk of a global nuclear catastrophe...).

Respectfully, this will be my only comment on the topic since I don't want to discuss politics on a semiconductor forum.
 
Xebec said:
The end of the human species is not worth some land.
Click to expand...

It is worth it. In between life or victory, people chose victory, repeatedly and consistently.

Ukraine has been basically destroyed as a country. Even before it lost population to war, it lost millions more to people seeing the writing on the wall that America wants to throw them to the wolves since nineties. Very similar in a way to American treatment of Taiwan.



Millions of conventional munitions scrapped for "disarmament" and photoshoots. Thousands of permanently deactivated tanks (hole drilled through the engine block). Thousands of conventional long range missiles scrapped. A fleet of 80 strategic bombers either destroyed, or handed over to Russia under American pressure.

View attachment 2623
View attachment 2624
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I think it's very appropriate for us to discuss impactful current events here.

Any conflict on the scale of Ukraine-Russia war in Asia means the end to our industry, careers, and lives as we know them.

An enemy landing in Taiwan or North America, in which PRC+Russia will have a huge advantage in numbers, means an inevitable massive draft to match troop numbers.

Chip designers are not needed in the times of war. It's almost certain that people in white collar occupations will be the first to be drafted.
 
Paul2 said:
My advise for Ukraine would be to quickly build thermonuclear weapons, and destroy Moscow. Should Russian early warning system then fire on USA automatically, well, let it be. Ukraine and Kazakhstan have tons of plutonium in storage.
Click to expand...
Historically, the fact of having a nuclear weapon is enough of a deterrent to prevent invasion.

I was a nuclear engineer in the USN on submarines. Having the weapons grade material (either plutonium or Uranium enriched to a high percentage) is one of the most difficult parts in making a weapon. Beyond that, it comes down to how much yield you get. Once a reaction starts releasing E=MC^2 amounts of energy, you would be surprised how difficult it is to keep it together long enough for the reaction to continue ;).

Back to the geopolitics though, the only thing worse for the economy than China taking over TSMC (and/or that equipment being destroyed), would be a nuclear war. This is an insane idea .... which is why it has never happened since the first nuclear weapons were used.

It is a shame that we have allowed things in semiconductors to come to this state. So few places and so few companies holding the entire world economy in their hands .... this should be resolved in a permanent way, and likely will be over the next 10 years.
 
OneEng said:
Historically, the fact of having a nuclear weapon is enough of a deterrent to prevent invasion.

I was a nuclear engineer in the USN on submarines. Having the weapons grade material (either plutonium or Uranium enriched to a high percentage) is one of the most difficult parts in making a weapon. Beyond that, it comes down to how much yield you get. Once a reaction starts releasing E=MC^2 amounts of energy, you would be surprised how difficult it is to keep it together long enough for the reaction to continue ;).

Back to the geopolitics though, the only thing worse for the economy than China taking over TSMC (and/or that equipment being destroyed), would be a nuclear war. This is an insane idea .... which is why it has never happened since the first nuclear weapons were used.

It is a shame that we have allowed things in semiconductors to come to this state. So few places and so few companies holding the entire world economy in their hands .... this should be resolved in a permanent way, and likely will be over the next 10 years.
Click to expand...
China would like to buy advanced GPU-Nope
China would like to buy advanced tools like EUV, nope
China would like to enlist TSMC to make advanced GPU, CPU or APC, nope

All those goodies for western democracies you communist stay in the dark ages.

How did we get here ?
 
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