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Not great news really. Watch for yourself and let me know:
Future Horizons has developed an unparalleled industry database addressing markets, technologies and supply in every significant area. With services ranging from bespoke industry studies to monthly and quarterly industry updates and forecasts as well as deep dive reports on key strategic issues on what drives the industry. Wally Rhines, SemiWiki Podcast EP70 – “Malcolm has the longest history in the industry of anyone who is still publicly active in reporting data, so you need to listen to him he’s seen a lot of cycles.”
He has a different perspective than most Wall Street analysts. I like that.
Biggest take aways:
Slide 19: 23:16 China Spend Now Slowing But Still 3x Market Justifiable Levels
Same slide: China Share of WW CapEx: 42% in 2024
Slide 16: 18:05 Monthly Total IC Unit Shipments (showing a long-term trend line, where were were 108b above trend during the pandemic, and we’re below trend for a few years by 62b but still have 42b “to go” before the excess is exhausted; perhaps 4 more quarters of below trend?
Slide 23 25:12 TSMC Driving Force Behind Logic Increase. TSMC ASP rises are unique among foundries and “This Flies In the Face of (a) Moore’s Law & (b) Competitive Pressure”. The chart shows TSMC ASP 12” US$ higher and diverging from all other foundries. No explanation.
So the twin challenges as I see it are the unique economics of TSMC that permits a strongly growing ASP despite Total IC Unit Shipments being below trend and China buildout of massive unsustainable capacity which could flood 14nm and above and just drown the world in mature capacity.
