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Well you are only thinking it from one point of view it is possible don't forget there is profit sharing as well for the fab Intel already paid a decent amount of fine for Ireland already if they failed to meet another milestone they had to pay the fine on top of sharing the profit and Intel might have factored that in when making the purchase.
Isn’t what you described just one of the reasons that Intel is being forced to buy back the 49% stake in the joint venture at such a high price and poor timing when Intel needs more cash? Especially since it effectively wipes out almost all of the cash investments made by the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
This $14.2 billion cash outflow exceeds the total net profit Intel has earned over the past five years. By comparison, Intel’s 2025 CapEx is $14.65 billion, only slightly higher than the $14.2 billion payout to Apollo.
This JV buyback will allow Intel to manage its Ireland fab with greater flexibility. But, the financial strain on Intel is enormous. Intel must be under significant pressure to execute such a large buyback, one that does not increase fab capacity at all.
"Are we really sure Intel initiated this “joint venture” buyback? Or was Intel forced to buy back Apollo’s 49% stake because the JV contract entitled Apollo to a highly profitable exit once certain clauses were met, or not met?"