Intel Foundry is way behind TSMC, but the goal is #2 by 2030

[IanD]

Not sure I agree with the logic here. Intel's biggest need right now is to fill the fabs. Choosing not to even try to serve a large portion of the potential market doesn't seem like a winning prospect to me. Yes the upfront expense is high, but the cost of underutilized fab space is astronomical. Just like interest, the cost of unused fab space never rests, it just keeps sucking up money.

Intel's plan is for these new nodes to run for over a decade plus. That is a lot of time to recover the upfront investment. I think being too concerned about a short term up front cost is short sighted and will cost Intel more in the long run.

I also don't think Intel wants to paint themselves out of the picture to manufacture the designs that their new ASIC design business will potentially generate. With BSPD being primarily aimed at HPC applications it seems to me front side power will be more desirable for many ASIC applications. Including the option in the foundry offerings gives these ASIC customers an easy on-ramp to work with Intel foundry.

But it's not just about cost, the amount of extra resource -- meaning, engineers! -- needed to support both BSPD and FSPD processes is huge because so many things are different. For starters the layouts are completely different so all IP (both internally and externally sourced) has to be rebuilt from scratch, and it's not just a few layout tweaks it's a major rethink -- plus the extraction is different, thermal properties are very different, libraries (standard cell and SRAM) have to be redone from scratch, tool costs double, customer support effort doubles. You also have to duplicate all the process qualification/reliability analysis because the processes are physically fundamentally different, and this alone is a massive effort and takes a lot of time and wafers to do.

Intel are already likely to be stretched in all these areas just to support BSPD because traditionally they only had to support internal design teams (so crappy documentation is "OK"), much more effort/resource is needed to properly support external customers -- been there in the past, got the T-shirt. Suggesting that they could easily do all this again for FSPD is not credible, they'd end up with terrible support for both processes instead of barely adequate support for one -- TSMC have being doing all this for years on multiple processes, but that doesn't mean Intel can do the same...

It doesn't matter how much Intel might *want* do support both, the question is whether they *can* support both -- and I don't think they can, at least not today.

There's also the question of why they would realistically want to do this, because all the things that FSPD customers are looking for -- fast TTM, strong IP ecosystem, low cost, high yield, high density, quick TAT -- are the things that TSMC is *very* good at (which is why everyone uses them) and Intel is historically bad at (and still not competitive today). Fighting an opponent on a battleground where they're strong and you're weak is never going to end well... :-(

People who don't understand the huge differences between the two processes are grossly underestimating the cost and difficulty of supporting both, see post from @MKWVentures above... ;-)

 

[swka]

But it's not just about cost, the amount of extra resource -- meaning, engineers! -- needed to support both BSPD and FSPD processes is huge because so many things are different. For starters the layouts are completely different so all IP (both internally and externally sourced) has to be rebuilt from scratch, and it's not just a few layout tweaks it's a major rethink -- plus the extraction is different, thermal properties are very different, libraries (standard cell and SRAM) have to be redone from scratch, tool costs double, customer support effort doubles. You also have to duplicate all the process qualification/reliability analysis because the processes are physically fundamentally different, and this alone is a massive effort and takes a lot of time and wafers to do.

Intel are already likely to be stretched in all these areas just to support BSPD because traditionally they only had to support internal design teams (so crappy documentation is "OK"), much more effort/resource is needed to properly support external customers -- been there in the past, got the T-shirt. Suggesting that they could easily do all this again for FSPD is not credible, they'd end up with terrible support for both processes instead of barely adequate support for one -- TSMC have being doing all this for years on multiple processes, but that doesn't mean Intel can do the same...

It doesn't matter how much Intel might *want* do support both, the question is whether they *can* support both -- and I don't think they can, at least not today.

There's also the question of why they would realistically want to do this, because all the things that FSPD customers are looking for -- fast TTM, strong IP ecosystem, low cost, high yield, high density, quick TAT -- are the things that TSMC is *very* good at (which is why everyone uses them) and Intel is historically bad at (and still not competitive today). Fighting an opponent on a battleground where they're strong and you're weak is never going to end well... :-(

People who don't understand the huge differences between the two processes are grossly underestimating the cost and difficulty of supporting both, see post from @MKWVentures above... ;-)

agree on the non-trivial effort supporting both options. As for the adequate resource, it comes down to whether intel really seriously consider to be in the foundry business, with aspiration to challenge tsmc. Intel ONLY need to support a hands of process nodes, while tsmc has full spectrum. And yes older nodes do not need as much support, but the scope of offering and support needed are obvious a lot more than what Intel current has.

Bottom line, if one wants to play in foundry business, one has to be prepared to make the necessary investment.

 

[IanD]

agree on the non-trivial effort supporting both options. As for the adequate resource, it comes down to whether intel really seriously consider to be in the foundry business, with aspiration to challenge tsmc. Intel ONLY need to support a hands of process nodes, while tsmc has full spectrum. And yes older nodes do not need as much support, but the scope of offering and support needed are obvious a lot more than what Intel current has.

Bottom line, if one wants to play in foundry business, one has to be prepared to make the necessary investment.

Like boy scouts, being prepared is one thing, but whether you actually have the resources is another thing entirely. No amount of *wanting* to do something is suddenly going to make a large number of experienced engineers appear out of nowhere, which is what would be needed for Intel to support both BSPD and FSPD. Plus they would have needed to have started this development at least a couple of years ago to have an N2 competitor in time, and I don't think even Intel have a time machine... ;-)

And it comes down to the big question -- even if Intel can compete with TSMC on the BSPD playing field for HPC where performance/speed is all-important (which they have a good chance of doing) and things like die cost and IP availability matter little to a few big customers -- which is essentially a similar market to their historical IDM CPU one where they were very successful -- can they compete in the FSPD foundry market where cost/density/yield/TTM/IP ecosystem are more important than balls-out speed/performance at all costs, and where they've been historically unsuccessful?

If Intel top management are being honest with themselves, I'm pretty sure the answer is "no" -- unless they can recruit Dr.Who and use the Tardis to go back and change their development history... ;-)

 

[hist78]

But it's not just about cost, the amount of extra resource -- meaning, engineers! -- needed to support both BSPD and FSPD processes is huge because so many things are different. For starters the layouts are completely different so all IP (both internally and externally sourced) has to be rebuilt from scratch, and it's not just a few layout tweaks it's a major rethink -- plus the extraction is different, thermal properties are very different, libraries (standard cell and SRAM) have to be redone from scratch, tool costs double, customer support effort doubles. You also have to duplicate all the process qualification/reliability analysis because the processes are physically fundamentally different, and this alone is a massive effort and takes a lot of time and wafers to do.

Intel are already likely to be stretched in all these areas just to support BSPD because traditionally they only had to support internal design teams (so crappy documentation is "OK"), much more effort/resource is needed to properly support external customers -- been there in the past, got the T-shirt. Suggesting that they could easily do all this again for FSPD is not credible, they'd end up with terrible support for both processes instead of barely adequate support for one -- TSMC have being doing all this for years on multiple processes, but that doesn't mean Intel can do the same...

It doesn't matter how much Intel might *want* do support both, the question is whether they *can* support both -- and I don't think they can, at least not today.

There's also the question of why they would realistically want to do this, because all the things that FSPD customers are looking for -- fast TTM, strong IP ecosystem, low cost, high yield, high density, quick TAT -- are the things that TSMC is *very* good at (which is why everyone uses them) and Intel is historically bad at (and still not competitive today). Fighting an opponent on a battleground where they're strong and you're weak is never going to end well... :-(

People who don't understand the huge differences between the two processes are grossly underestimating the cost and difficulty of supporting both, see post from @MKWVentures above... ;-)

People always talk about and compare the PPA (Power, Performance, and Area) in the semiconductor industry. In reality, it should be PPAC, wit the C represents the cost. Without managing the cost, customers won't come because they won't make enough profit to justify why they need to buy your products or services.

For example, Intel has one of the largest R&D budgets in the semiconductor industry, yet its R&D returns have been miserable for years.

 

[swka]

Like boy scouts, being prepared is one thing, but whether you actually have the resources is another thing entirely. No amount of *wanting* to do something is suddenly going to make a large number of experienced engineers appear out of nowhere, which is what would be needed for Intel to support both BSPD and FSPD. Plus they would have needed to have started this development at least a couple of years ago to have an N2 competitor in time, and I don't think even Intel have a time machine... ;-)

And it comes down to the big question -- even if Intel can compete with TSMC on the BSPD playing field for HPC where performance/speed is all-important (which they have a good chance of doing) and things like die cost and IP availability matter little to a few big customers -- which is essentially a similar market to their historical IDM CPU one where they were very successful -- can they compete in the FSPD foundry market where cost/density/yield/TTM/IP ecosystem are more important than balls-out speed/performance at all costs, and where they've been historically unsuccessful?

If Intel top management are being honest with themselves, I'm pretty sure the answer is "no" -- unless they can recruit Dr.Who and use the Tardis to go back and change their development history... ;-)

given the direction of the new management, which is much more certainly of ROI before any investment, they are playing a very LONG game.

 

[hist78]

Like boy scouts, being prepared is one thing, but whether you actually have the resources is another thing entirely. No amount of *wanting* to do something is suddenly going to make a large number of experienced engineers appear out of nowhere, which is what would be needed for Intel to support both BSPD and FSPD. Plus they would have needed to have started this development at least a couple of years ago to have an N2 competitor in time, and I don't think even Intel have a time machine... ;-)

And it comes down to the big question -- even if Intel can compete with TSMC on the BSPD playing field for HPC where performance/speed is all-important (which they have a good chance of doing) and things like die cost and IP availability matter little to a few big customers -- which is essentially a similar market to their historical IDM CPU one where they were very successful -- can they compete in the FSPD foundry market where cost/density/yield/TTM/IP ecosystem are more important than balls-out speed/performance at all costs, and where they've been historically unsuccessful?

If Intel top management are being honest with themselves, I'm pretty sure the answer is "no" -- unless they can recruit Dr.Who and use the Tardis to go back and change their development history... ;-)

By and large, each Scout is competing against himself or herself, not against other Scouts. Once a Scout completes the required milestones, merit badges and community service, he or she advances to the next rank, such as Eagle Scout.

Intel, however, operates in a completely different environment. Intel and every other semiconductor company are competing directly against one another. Simply being prepared is not enough.

Thank you for bringing up the “Boy Scouts” analogy. It suddenly made me realize that Intel has been in “Scout mode” for many years. It has achieved a lot internally and showcased many accomplishments at conferences and trade shows, but that isn’t enough in the highly competitive semiconductor industry.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

agree on the non-trivial effort supporting both options. As for the adequate resource, it comes down to whether intel really seriously consider to be in the foundry business, with aspiration to challenge tsmc. Intel ONLY need to support a hands of process nodes, while tsmc has full spectrum. And yes older nodes do not need as much support, but the scope of offering and support needed are obvious a lot more than what Intel current has.

Bottom line, if one wants to play in foundry business, one has to be prepared to make the necessary investment.

The other problem is Samsung selling leading edge wafers so cheaply. Being as good as TSMC and as cheap as Samsung is a rock and a hard place.

 

[KevinK]

Maybe Intel can help Elon build his Terafabs he mentioned today. Maybe Ohio ??

"You know, I mentioned this at the shareholder meeting, but even when we look at the best case output of all of our key suppliers, and I’d say even they’re beyond suppliers, they’re like strategic partners, like Samsung, TSMC, and Micron, and we say, like: "What’s the most you could possibly make?" Then it’s not enough. So I think in order to remove the constraint, the probable constraint in three or four years, we are gonna have to build a Tesla Terafab, a very big fab that includes logic, memory, and packaging, domestically. And that’s actually also gonna be very important to ensure that we are protected against any geopolitical risks.

I think people may be underweighting some of the geopolitical risks that are gonna be a major factor in a few years. So, now, you know, a lot of people are like, "That’s crazy. Fabs are really hard." I’m like: "Yes, I know fabs are really hard. I don’t think they’re easy." But we do a lot of hard things. You know, we didn’t used to have car factories, that we didn’t use to have battery cell factories or lithium refineries or, you know, Megapack factories or, you know, all these other things. We figured it out. So I think we-- if we don’t do the Tesla Terafab, we’re gonna be limited by supplier output of chips. And I think maybe memory is an even bigger limiter than AI logic. So you know, for example, we have chip supply deals with TSMC in Arizona and Samsung in Texas, but currently there are no advanced memory fabs at scale in the United States. There are zero, literally zero.

Hopefully, you know, Micron will have something going in a few years, because they’re all headquartered in Idaho, you know, where they make a lot of potato chips, but they need to make computer chips, too. So, anyway, we’re working with our strategic partners on the chip front, memory and logic, but I think we’ve got to also try our hand at building a large-scale fab that integrates logic, memory, and packaging. And if we don’t do that, we’re just gonna be fundamentally limited by supply chain, especially if there’s some geo- in a worst-case geopolitical situation, it would be quite a severe situation. So I think -- quite frankly, it’d be crazy not to try the Terafab."

https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-tesla-q4-2025-beats-forecasts-stock-edges-up-93CH-4471703

 

[Artificer60]

Plus they would have needed to have started this development at least a couple of years ago to have an N2 competitor in time, and I don't think even Intel have a time machine... ;-)

If you look back at my initial post you will see that I specifically called out FSPD on 14A. I never claimed it was on their N2 competitor which is 18A. That is a product that has just rolled out the PDK 0.5. Intel expects customer orders to ship in 2028. If they follow TSMC's path FSPD will show up around a year later like 16A is planned to. So they have roughly 3 years to do the development. No time machine required.

Regarding the complexity, I do work in a fab and frequently interact with integration. So while I don't claim to be an expert, I am not totally ignorant of process flows and the type of changes switching from BSPD to FSPD would entail.

 

[NY_Sam2]

Samsung Foundry is behind TSMC, trying to catch/mimic TSMC as much as possible but yield is still low

Intel 5N4Y = Intel 7, Intel 4/3, Intel 20A/18A in 2021-2025, big changes like FinFET->GAA, Backside Power, ..
Samsung 3N3Y = SF3 in 2024, SF2 in 2025, SF2P in 2026, same GAA & small changes like reducing M0 Pitch, ..
According to news reporters in Korea, Samsung is expecting/guiding external customers to adopt SF2P