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Intel's former CEO once set an ambitious target for the company to secure 10% of the foundry market by 2030. In your view, does this objective remain an unrealistic fantasy, or could the current surge in AI chip demand provide Intel a genuine opportunity to capture a mid-single-digit share, perhaps 5%, within that timeframe?
Disclaimer: I'm asking out of curiosity. I have nothing to do with the prediction markets.
Intel's former CEO once set an ambitious target for the company to secure 10% of the foundry market by 2030. In your view, does this objective remain an unrealistic fantasy, or could the current surge in AI chip demand provide Intel a genuine opportunity to capture a mid-single-digit share, perhaps 5%, within that timeframe?
Disclaimer: I'm asking out of curiosity. I have nothing to do with the prediction markets.
All that has changed based on the lack of traction. the goal was 15B in external revenue. Add that to internal and IFS makes sense.
and If intel is going to claim packaging as foundry, then you need to add in ASE and AMKOR.
Intel needs 15B in external revenue to make the finances make sense. The plan was 2030 for this. There is not line of sight to get there yet. Our model is that if ALL of the speculated commitments came true, they are about halfway to goal.
The intermediate goal should be to be a top 10 foundry in external revenue (wafer fab) and Top 5 packaging house in external revenue.
Intel needs 15B in external revenue to make the finances make sense. The plan was 2030 for this. There is not line of sight to get there yet. Our model is that if ALL of the speculated commitments came true, they are about halfway to goal.
Then you need to include all the packaging houses in the external foundry camp. In that case, IFS is not currently a top 20 source of packaging and foundry sales to other companies.
Intels internal doesnt matter. Intel cannot survive doing process development and fab just internal .... Swan Gelsinger LBT 100% agree on this. so you can combine them and say 35B or separate them and say 15B external.
Intel needs 15B annual external to survive. The plan is that most of this must be Fab. This has been the goal/requirement since 2021. the discussions at Intel today are no different than before. Just need to see some results
Right now IFS revenue is 95%+ Internal. it needs to be 50-60%. Again, No one at Intel disagrees with this..... Add onto that the fact that TSMC is a better process for some intel products and is chosen for the PPAC and that is another challenge
