I was surprised to say the least when they changed the rules a long time ago. From the Chinese only being allowed to buy tools two generations behind the leading edge to basically being allowed to buy anything. And then we went from that to the current situation where even immersion tools, which are two generations behind, now that we are in High-NA EUV territory, also not being allowed in some cases.
Because of someone in some stupid government commission's funny idea that "FinFET" is some kind of performance threshold. 14nm FinFET was decided to be in the sanctions zone. So they designed the regulations for tools exports based on that. Then they figured out that 16nm FinFET at TSMC was also a thing and they made that the limit. Goofy.
The old rules where you could only export to China if something was two generations behind were much easier to grasp and enforce. They also meant that the Chinese tools sector was in a perpetual race to catch up which they never did. By setting a hard ceiling, they are basically saying that there is an event horizon where the Chinese tools vendors will be free from the hassle of any competition.
Lots of people severely underestimate the Chinese semi tools sector. They already have two vendors in the worldwide top 10 by revenue and it seems like no one noticed it yet. If they ban ASML and Nikon from selling the Chinese immersion tools, they will basically seal the Western tool vendor's fates in China for a generation. Some people even want to go further, they want to ban sales of all 300mm equipment to China, ignoring the fact that the Chinese can make it themselves. 65nm lithography with 300mm wafers, and 28nm or better of basically everything else.
Because of someone in some stupid government commission's funny idea that "FinFET" is some kind of performance threshold. 14nm FinFET was decided to be in the sanctions zone. So they designed the regulations for tools exports based on that. Then they figured out that 16nm FinFET at TSMC was also a thing and they made that the limit. Goofy.
The old rules where you could only export to China if something was two generations behind were much easier to grasp and enforce. They also meant that the Chinese tools sector was in a perpetual race to catch up which they never did. By setting a hard ceiling, they are basically saying that there is an event horizon where the Chinese tools vendors will be free from the hassle of any competition.
Lots of people severely underestimate the Chinese semi tools sector. They already have two vendors in the worldwide top 10 by revenue and it seems like no one noticed it yet. If they ban ASML and Nikon from selling the Chinese immersion tools, they will basically seal the Western tool vendor's fates in China for a generation. Some people even want to go further, they want to ban sales of all 300mm equipment to China, ignoring the fact that the Chinese can make it themselves. 65nm lithography with 300mm wafers, and 28nm or better of basically everything else.
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