ASML are still selling DUV machines to China, BTW. They have a sales extension until end of this year. Also, some DUV models are not restricted.
Kirin 9000s Analysis: Should be Made by SMIC's N+2 Process
- Thread starter Maximus
- Start date
Pretty good call @hist78 and @Jert. Saw this retrospective on Mate 60 / Mate 60 Pro volumes, in SCMP. Less than half of the hyped volume (I saw 30M another place when the 60 launched.
“The Pura 70 line is expected to generate global shipments of around 10.4 million this year, compared to the company’s previous P60 series that only shipped 1.8 million units and the Mate 60 Pro series that sold 6.2 million in China last year, according to a report by TechInsights on Thursday.”
Huawei’s new Pura 70 series smartphone poses a threat to iPhone sales in China, say analysts — South China Morning Post
Huawei Technologies’ new Pura 70 series is posing a further threat to Apple in the world’s biggest smartphone market, as the Chinese tech giant eyes retaking the top spot on its home turf this year, analysts say. The Pura 70 line is expected to generate…
apple.news
The P60 is using the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 which uses a 4nm process from TSMC. Presumably the chip supply would not be the limiter of sales.“The Pura 70 line is expected to generate global shipments of around 10.4 million this year, compared to the company’s previous P60 series that only shipped 1.8 million units and the Mate 60 Pro series that sold 6.2 million in China last year, according to a report by TechInsights on Thursday.”
Huawei’s new Pura 70 series smartphone poses a threat to iPhone sales in China, say analysts — South China Morning Post
Huawei Technologies’ new Pura 70 series is posing a further threat to Apple in the world’s biggest smartphone market, as the Chinese tech giant eyes retaking the top spot on its home turf this year, analysts say. The Pura 70 line is expected to generate…
Thanks Fred. - that would mean that the Kirin 9000 numbers were even more anemic, only 1/3 of projections. Based on the numbers it sure seems like both yield issues and diversion of capacity to AI chips are limiting factors vs. the hype surrounding this “breakthrough“ SoCs. And Huawei is tamping down expectations for the follow on phone and SoC.
It looks like the Pura 70 forecast of 10.4 million domestically generated would be too optimistic compared to the P60 only 1.8 million generated from TSMC? Aside, Huawei Mate 60 allegedly crossed 30 million, is that disputed?
The TechInsights report that SCMP is quoting from says only 1.8M Mate 60s last year (maybe that reflects running out of inventories of the SnapDragon 8+ , or a product transition). It could have 30M units over the life of the 60, but it sounds like it is EOL. And the Mate 60 Pro that was ostensibly going to sell 20M when launched in the summer of 2023, only saw 6.8M units over the past year. Just to put in perspective, the iPhone 15 / Bionic 17 moved about 69M units in its first five months, and that was considered a slow launch.
Just trying to compare actual outcome, vs all the hubris and hand-wringing when the Kirin 9000 first hit the airwaves.
Is the 1.8 million referring to P60 or Mate 60? The P60 is using the Snapdragon 8+ indeed, but that is not domestic. One analyst predicted Huawei to sell only 60 million (across all models) this year: https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-huawei-start-selling-pura-70-smartphones-2024-04-18/ Last year, it was 32 million.
Sorry 1.8M P60s. But I was really only focused on the Mate 60s Pros that use the homegrown Kirin 9000, fabricated at SMIC South.