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I have no doubt China could take Taiwan, but the disruption to trade would make the war look like a footnote. China would lose access to its biggest markets in the western world and the supply of advanced chips would take years to recover. China would also have to deal with unconventional advanced war both physically and strategically. All would suffer the damage of a world economy with more interdependence than ever, physically, financially, politically and resource wise. Also, the conflict would disrupt the flow of IP which is now a key resource as any other. The war would be like fighting with hand grenades in a small room, everyone loses. War is definitely the last refuge of the incompetent. Free exchange of resources of all types is now critical to economic, physical and social stability and prosperity.
I have no doubt China could take Taiwan, but the disruption to trade would make the war look like a footnote. China would lose access to its biggest markets in the western world and the supply of advanced chips would take years to recover. China would also have to deal with unconventional advanced war both physically and strategically. All would suffer the damage of a world economy with more interdependence than ever, physically, financially, politically and resource wise. Also, the conflict would disrupt the flow of IP which is now a key resource as any other. The war would be like fighting with hand grenades in a small room, everyone loses. War is definitely the last refuge of the incompetent. Free exchange of resources of all types is now critical to economic, physical and social stability and prosperity.
Don't be so sure. Taiwan only has a couple landing spots that are very fortified and the rest of the island is flanked by mountains. Also, an invasion force would be seen to be building up for over a year for a job of that size. I reckon it would be a massacre to attempt and invasion against a modern military with anti ship missiles and mine torpedos. Russia failed in its invasion with a land border along three sides, and against a military that much less advanced then Taiwans. So how is China going to supply all its troops under fire, getting everything an invasion force needs to eat and fight, never-mind get enough troops across without being blown out of the water? They currently run drills with ferries for this purpose, unarmed ferries. I can assure you Taiwan has more antiship missiles and torpedos then China can muster transports. I find the whole prospect prohibitively costly and difficult for mainlanders even without allied intervention for Taiwan. Now if you add in Japan and the U.S. It will be a massacre. It's just not going to happen.
The US and others are gaining valuable war information in Israel and Ukraine. It is costing us trillions of dollars but hopefully it will be useful against China. And you can bet Taiwan is ramping up advanced war drone production and drone protection like no other, and they certainly have the chips to do it! Exciting times in the semiconductor industry, absolutely.
The US and others are gaining valuable war information in Israel and Ukraine. It is costing us trillions of dollars but hopefully it will be useful against China. And you can bet Taiwan is ramping up advanced war drone production and drone protection like no other, and they certainly have the chips to do it! Exciting times in the semiconductor industry, absolutely.
Billions not trillions. And well worth it. The yearly budget for military is 900 billion. We are spending a fraction of that to cripple Russia's military without spending any American lives. Russia is openly allied to China and other malign actors (i.e Iran, North Korea) with the express purpose of undermining the U.S. and liberal values worldwide. They see themselves as already at war with out us for the ideological future of the world. Not spending this money now would be foolish beyond belief.
Earlier this year, Bloomberg Economics did an interesting analysis of the economic impact from a China invasion of Taiwan. Overall world GDP would drop 10%, with China down 17%, and the US down 7%. We're talking trillions of $s As others have noted, this goes way beyond semis or tech.
Earlier this year, Bloomberg Economics did an interesting analysis of the economic impact from a China invasion of Taiwan. Overall world GDP would drop 10%, with China down 17%, and the US down 7%. We're talking trillions of $s As others have noted, this goes way beyond semis or tech.
I think Bloomberg is grossly underestimating the potential economic impact, especially for China. China's trade to GDP ratio was about 38% a couple of years ago. Unlike Russia, China's economy is too big to get propped up by a few messed up allies, in China's case Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Billions not trillions. And well worth it. The yearly budget for military is 900 billion. We are spending a fraction of that to cripple Russia's military without spending any American lives. Russia is openly allied to China and other malign actors (i.e Iran, North Korea) with the express purpose of undermining the U.S. and liberal values worldwide. They see themselves as already at war with out us for the ideological future of the world. Not spending this money now would be foolish beyond belief.
Sorta - there are a lot of black projects with no clear funding source. See also: printing money on top of this. Also keep in mind the Ukraine war has already gone on for a few years.
Forget for a moment that about the political and ideology that divides Taiwan and China and recall the Chinese people mostly share a common history, written language and culture. It seems natural they should be one country no? Of course it’s more than half a century that political ideology, economics have driven them on separate paths. There is rational that China has ambition and also one should appreciate their desire for reunification!
Now to the CCP versus Wes. No question the west is uncomfortable with a possible true economic and technological peer with different ideology and vision of world order.
Twenty years ago we were all for collaboration, development and more as it benefited both China and the west. Spring forward to today we see a country that is nearly our equal with different view of the world and fairness and we can’t accept it. So in the name of “good” simply can’t have an equal so we want all that is good with our relationship with them: cheap electronics and everything else. But no way will we give them the tools or products to be our equal. Put yourself in their shoes, CCP propaganda aside are we a bit extreme ?
They don’t need to invade Taiwan, just block air and ships like the west blocked advanced chips and and tools to make them and other things.
I am sure that is a schenario played out over and over in China. Or in the end they don’t care, they have time and people to beat the west
Like Israel and Palestine, Ukraine and Russia, the China and Taiwan problem does not have an equitable solution. Talk about it, protest it, go to war over it, there still is no solution. Taiwan is still a democracy and they have spoken. That should be respected.
The world has such a violent history. At some point in time a civilization has to to say enough is enough. Maybe AI will fix it?
Forget for a moment that about the political and ideology that divides Taiwan and China and recall the Chinese people mostly share a common history, written language and culture. It seems natural they should be one country no? Of course it’s more than half a century that political ideology, economics have driven them on separate paths. There is rational that China has ambition and also one should appreciate their desire for reunification!
Now to the CCP versus Wes. No question the west is uncomfortable with a possible true economic and technological peer with different ideology and vision of world order.
Twenty years ago we were all for collaboration, development and more as it benefited both China and the west. Spring forward to today we see a country that is nearly our equal with different view of the world and fairness and we can’t accept it. So in the name of “good” simply can’t have an equal so we want all that is good with our relationship with them: cheap electronics and everything else. But no way will we give them the tools or products to be our equal. Put yourself in their shoes, CCP propaganda aside are we a bit extreme ?
They don’t need to invade Taiwan, just block air and ships like the west blocked advanced chips and and tools to make them and other things.
I am sure that is a schenario played out over and over in China. Or in the end they don’t care, they have time and people to beat the west
Young Taiwanese see themselves at distinctly Taiwanese and not Chinese. It’s up to them to decide, not what others think of a perceived “brotherhood of Han”.
Young Taiwanese see themselves at distinctly Taiwanese and not Chinese. It’s up to them to decide, not what others think of a perceived “brotherhood of Han”.
By young do you mean under 30yo? If so I would agree 100%.
I saw a similar thing in China. I was at a celebration with 500+ people right before the pandemic and a CCP video was shown at the end of the event. It celebrated the communist overthrow with a strong military theme (tanks, marching, fighter jets etc.) Most people sat up at attention while the younger folks continued eating and drinking. I was a bit shocked as I have never seen such a thing but was told later that an executive at the company is a senior CCP person. I was also told that I should assume that everything I say can be overheard and everything I do can be seen, especially activity on the internet. That is not the China I knew 30 years ago when I first landed there.
By young do you mean under 30yo? If so I would agree 100%.
I saw a similar thing in China. I was at a celebration with 500+ people right before the pandemic and a CCP video was shown at the end of the event. It celebrated the communist overthrow with a strong military theme (tanks, marching, fighter jets etc.) Most people sat up at attention while the younger folks continued eating and drinking. I was a bit shocked as I have never seen such a thing but was told later that an executive at the company is a senior CCP person. I was also told that I should assume that everything I say can be overheard and everything I do can be seen, especially activity on the internet. That is not the China I knew 30 years ago when I first landed there.
The poll defines as 34 and under. 83% see themselves as solely Taiwanese. And yes on the second point. A generation has grown up expecting a certain standard of living in China. They care more about their own lives than some grand national project that the CCP likes to portray.
Billions not trillions. And well worth it. The yearly budget for military is 900 billion. We are spending a fraction of that to cripple Russia's military without spending any American lives. Russia is openly allied to China and other malign actors (i.e Iran, North Korea) with the express purpose of undermining the U.S. and liberal values worldwide. They see themselves as already at war with out us for the ideological future of the world. Not spending this money now would be foolish beyond belief.
Arguably, the easier (and relatively safer) strategy for the CCP is to attempt to organize a military coup of the Taiwanese president and democracy. Invasion is messy, expensive, and costly while a successful coup is arguably much less costly and China could attempt to have some veneer of deniability to distance themselves if things go wrong. Of course, you have to consider the fact that the Taiwanese people would probably not stand for a coup - but the main issue is that you never know the public's reaction until something actually happens/gets out.
Fear mongering about a Chinese invasion is a bad idea: everyone would see it coming. A precision strike and coup is what people should really be worried about.
It’s a classic textbook play to point to international “problems” to distract from domestic issues. Ironically, both of the CCP and US governments are benefiting from this play..
Young Taiwanese see themselves at distinctly Taiwanese and not Chinese. It’s up to them to decide, not what others think of a perceived “brotherhood of Han”.
Arguably, the easier (and relatively safer) strategy for the CCP is to attempt to organize a military coup of the Taiwanese president and democracy. Invasion is messy, expensive, and costly while a successful coup is arguably much less costly and China could attempt to have some veneer of deniability to distance themselves if things go wrong. Of course, you have to consider the fact that the Taiwanese people would probably not stand for a coup - but the main issue is that you never know the public's reaction until something actually happens/gets out.
Fear mongering about a Chinese invasion is a bad idea: everyone would see it coming. A precision strike and coup is what people should really be worried about.
Just a statement of air and sea embargo and a few stopped ships and shot down airline and world tech trad stops and stock markets plunge 40-50% or more
Just as the West is trying to decouple it's supply chain from China, China is trying to decouple itself from Western technology. And China is decoupling it's technological reliance faster than we are decoupling our supply chain reliance. The biggest economic risk to China is would be a lot of factories supplying customers in the west would lose a lot of business and there would be mass unemployment, but I can tell you that nothing generates employment like war.
War ended the great depression, and just look at Russia - one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world thanks to war. Everyone who thought Russia's economy would be crippled by the war has since been proven wrong.
