Jeff Fieldhack
Research DirectorFebruary 1, 2026
Counterpoint Research was able to tour Intel’s state-of-the-art Fab52 in Phoenix, Arizona. This is where 18A / Panther Lake is in mass production. We would like to share our takeaways:
- Intel Corporation has pivoted IFS from previous CEO, Pat Gelsinger’s aggressive ‘build it and they will come’ thinking that there would be sufficient external customers. Current CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, is more conservative and stating ‘no more blank fab checks’. Emphasizing that Intel is only building capacity for customer commitments. This is why some sites have paused fab buildouts.
- Currently, Counterpoint estimates about 70-75% of volumes are built in Intel fabs, 25-30% at TSMC and others; Intel expects internal capacity and yields will rise.
- Intel’s quote on the US govt investment: “Good for Intel, good for the US govt, good for US taxpayers”.
- The company’s balance sheet is in a drastically improved state than a year ago. There was Trump admin chatter that the Chips Act investments would not be fully paid out. With the recent investment from the US Govt, it was agreed the Chips Act investments would fully be paid to Intel. In addition, the US govt has no voting rights and basically agreed to vote with Intel board. There is no trigger as long as Intel keeps a minimum of 51% of foundry business. Intel is comfortable with the 10% investment from the US govt because of such limited control and it also helped expedite the Chips Act payment. Again, good for Intel.
- Intel mentioned it could seek investment money for the IFS business. The US govt does not want Intel to spin off foundry or reduce its equity as it wants to help secure a semi supply chain in the US, however this is an option for Intel and provides some flexibility.
- More details on Intel’s balance sheet today vs. one year ago: Intel received the remaining $5b from the Chips Act funding agreement. There was a $2b investment from Softbank (investing in AI and providing solutions for Softbank and Softbank portfolio). Intel sold $1b of MobileEye, received an additional $7b investment from US govt, and Alterra sale closed for another $3.5b.
- NVIDIA has invested $5b in Intel to co-develop PC and server chips. It is also likely that NVIDIA is interested and investing in Intel’s advanced packaging.
- Intel will build x86 central processing units for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure platforms. On the PC front, Intel will build x86 system-on-chips using Nvidia’s RTX graphics processing units that will power computers.
- Intel is in mass production of 18A / Panther Lake production in Arizona and Oregon. There is more chatter that there may be multiple external 18A and/or 18AP customers. It could help potential fabless semi partners diversify from TSMC and give some additional negotiating power. In addition, many semi OEMs we met with at CES 2026 are looking to appease the Trump Admin and investigating using Intel’s US foundry is a way to do it.
- There are still ambitions that 14A will be a larger foundry node with more external customers. Intel believes 14A will be optimized for external customers with a better understanding of process development kits (PDKs). Earlier, better, and more feedback from external customers will help the process. In addition, it will be second generation backside power. Performance and yield of 14A, per Intel, is significantly ahead of 18A at a similar point of development. Intel has been clear that spending on R&D, tooling, capacity, etc will only be when customers are onboard. This will be better known for Intel 2H 2026 and into 2027.
- Intel is the first vendor producing the GAA and backside power technology in the industry. This is not fully understood by the industry. Counterpoint Senior Analyst, Jake Lai, welcomes discussing the details and what this means for the industry.
- 14A estimated timeline is risk production in 2027 and mass production in 2028/29. Customer engagements are higher with external customers than 18A / Panther Lake. Intel is engaged with external customers earlier in the definitional phase which will make it easier for external customers to use IFS.
- IFS outlook: Intel is in a better position today than 18 months ago. Its balance sheet is much improved. NVIDIA’s investment has added credibility to IFS and other fabless OEMs will likely want to diversify some of their portfolio from TSMC. US-based fabless semi also have incentives to invest in the US---a tail wind for Intel. The Counterpoint team will be watching closely the yield improvements, pricing dynamics, and new potential clients for IFS.
- Comments welcome....