Uncertainty Is The New Normal
… Stay Calm & Carry On!
Executive Summary
Annualised growth rates rebounded in April, with Total Semiconductors growing 22.8 percent, up from last month’s 18.7 percent number but still down from August 2024’s 28.5 percent cyclical peak.
Total ICs continued to be the star sector performer, at a healthy 25.1 percent growth up from 22.6 percent in March, with Opto at plus 16.0 percent, vs. minus 3.5 percent in March, and Discretes up 5.5 percent vs. March’s 0.9 percent decline.
Whilst the overall IC market still showed strong double-digit growth, the overall trend is flat, at around the 20 percent level, varying from August 2024’s 36.2 percent peak to January 2025’s 14.8 percent low. We expect to see this trend turn down in the coming months, as per past cyclical patterns.
Annualised growth rates are, however, just one side of the coin. Our preferred measure is the month-on-month revenue growth trends, which we believe are a more accurate reflection of the overall industry health.
From a market perspective, growth is still very much AI infrastructure driven, with the broader, more general, markets yet to recover from the post-Covid downturn. A worsening global GDP outlook could trigger a global recession.
This combination of circumstances is a perfect storm on steroids.
- GDP growth has been revised down, from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent;
- There is no rebound yet in sight for a rebound in IC unit shipments;
- ASP are all falling, except for some yet unclear reason in Logic, and:
- Excess capacity abounds and is poised to get worse.
The broader industry dynamics are dreadful. Under normal industry conditions, short of a major geo-political or natural disaster crisis it doesn’t get much worse than this.
Malcolm Penn
11 Jun 2025
Read The Full Report Here: https://www.futurehorizons.com/page/137/
… Stay Calm & Carry On!
Executive Summary
Annualised growth rates rebounded in April, with Total Semiconductors growing 22.8 percent, up from last month’s 18.7 percent number but still down from August 2024’s 28.5 percent cyclical peak.
Total ICs continued to be the star sector performer, at a healthy 25.1 percent growth up from 22.6 percent in March, with Opto at plus 16.0 percent, vs. minus 3.5 percent in March, and Discretes up 5.5 percent vs. March’s 0.9 percent decline.
Whilst the overall IC market still showed strong double-digit growth, the overall trend is flat, at around the 20 percent level, varying from August 2024’s 36.2 percent peak to January 2025’s 14.8 percent low. We expect to see this trend turn down in the coming months, as per past cyclical patterns.
Annualised growth rates are, however, just one side of the coin. Our preferred measure is the month-on-month revenue growth trends, which we believe are a more accurate reflection of the overall industry health.
From a market perspective, growth is still very much AI infrastructure driven, with the broader, more general, markets yet to recover from the post-Covid downturn. A worsening global GDP outlook could trigger a global recession.
This combination of circumstances is a perfect storm on steroids.
- GDP growth has been revised down, from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent;
- There is no rebound yet in sight for a rebound in IC unit shipments;
- ASP are all falling, except for some yet unclear reason in Logic, and:
- Excess capacity abounds and is poised to get worse.
The broader industry dynamics are dreadful. Under normal industry conditions, short of a major geo-political or natural disaster crisis it doesn’t get much worse than this.
Malcolm Penn
11 Jun 2025
Read The Full Report Here: https://www.futurehorizons.com/page/137/