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Not relevant to IFS spinout IMO, as long as Intel can offer a wafer volume commitment for the next 5 years, which I think they can.
Scaled back capex would probably be an outcome of the spinout.
I think people fail to recognize how bad financial conditions were in 2009 when looking at GFS vs potential IFS spinoff compared to the overall macro today.
1. In 2009 we were in the worst of the financial crisis, and financing large deals was very difficult
2. AMD was in worse shape in 2009...
I would agree that they have reached the limit for fixed asset investment as a percent of gdp.
Some sectors will struggle more than others, like construction.
But this is a complete red herring when it comes to the topic of “will China catch up and be able to compete against leading edge...
Want to elaborate on failing EV plant?
Fabs don't employ that many people in the grand scheme of things. TSMC has something like 70,000 employees total producing something like 60% of the worlds chips. From an employment standpoint that's a rounding error for China. I don't think this is a...
China's economy is going through a rough patch in the short term, that's for sure. But it's not as bad as the picture being painted outside of China.
China overbuilt on fixed assets. That's a problem that needs to be solved by write downs and restructuring with associated financial losses...
This is what I think should happen.
Intel could spin off or sell everything that isn't profitable, except for GPU/AI.
It is still early days in AI, and if Intel got rid of it's other capital sinks, and kept just the x86 cash cow along with the AI/GPU business, they could invest $10b a year...
Blackwell probably delayed longer than Nvidia is letting on. That said, companies will just need to wait longer.
Yes it gives AMD and other would be competitors a little more time to catch up, and maybe provides a small opening, but even if Blackwell is delayed a year I think customers will...
I disagree. China > US and EU combined. In PPP terms, the Chinese economy is only a little lower than US + EU combined. However most measures of GDP significantly underestimate China and overestimate the US both in nominal and PPP terms.
Europe is on the decline and I expect in my lifetime...
Well, I think semi people seem to think there is something special about semi manufacturing. But auto people used to think there was something special about auto manufacturing, and before that steel makers used to think there was something special about steel manufacturing.
At the end of the...
I'm currently working with some Chinese companies on battery development and manufacturing so I have a different perspective. I can say at least for batteries, after seeing how advanced they are in this area, it's not surprising that the leading battery companies in the world are from China...
China's market is enormous. There is a lot of collaboration in many internal Chinese markets, look at the Chinese auto industry, and battery industry. People were caught off guard that SMIC was able to even release a 7nm chip, I wasn't. Manufacturing is a culture, and no-one does it better...
China will catch up eventually. Progress on the leading edge is slowing down, and China will eventually build their own EUV machines. It's a matter of when, not if.
There is still an advantage to breaking it out. People don't want to work with IF, because they don't want to work with Intel. Also, the org structure could be simplified in the case of a stand alone foundry (it'll be harder for underperformers to hide in a less bloated org)
The drama continues.
Tan saw workforce as bloated, culture risk-averse
Tan's exit leaves a vacuum of chip-industry expertise on Intel's board
Intel's struggles led to layoffs, paused dividend, slashed capital spending
Intel's foundry business plan faces challenges without major customers or...
On AI bubble, in the short term I agree. There is a lot of spending on chips. I think it's mostly one time spend. The models are starting to get smaller, not bigger.
