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TSMC Hearts Japan

benb

Well-known member

TSMC prizes Japan's chips skills after US stumbles -sources​

BY Reuters
— 7:12 PM ET 09/12/2023

By Sam Nussey, Fanny Potkin and Sarah Wu
TOKYO/SINGAPORE/TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan's TSMC, which is making an unprecedented push into chip manufacturing overseas, is taking an increasingly optimistic view of Japan as a production base, two industry sources said, as problems persist at its new factory in Arizona.
TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, is frustrated in Arizona, the sources said, where it has struggled to recruit workers for the gruelling chipmaking trade and faced pushback from unions on efforts to bring in workers from Taiwan.
The company has growing confidence in Japan, where an $8.6 billion fab under construction in a chipmaking hub on the island of Kyushu is on track to start producing mature-technology chips in 2024, the sources said.
While keen to ensure a smooth ramp up at the first fab, the chipmaker is considering adding capacity and a second fab in Japan, the sources said, which could include the production of more advanced chips.
Several chip industry sources spoke to Reuters about TSMC's view of Japan and its global expansion on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Successful expansion by TSMC in Japan could give a boost to efforts by the country to regain its lost status as a chip manufacturing powerhouse and support its automotive and electronics industries amid growing regional competition.
TSMC said in a statement its overseas expansion depends on factors including the needs of customers, the level of government support and cost considerations.
In Arizona, TSMC plans to produce advanced chips but a shortage of skilled workers has forced the company to push back production at its first fab by a year to 2025.
"Any project... will have some learning curve. In the past five months the improvement has been tremendous," TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said of the Arizona project last week.
Fabs in the U.S., Japan and Germany, where it is also expanding, are "inherently incomparable" due to differences in location, setup and scope, TSMC said.
NATURAL FIT
The U.S., Japan and Germany have offered TSMC billions of dollars in subsidies for it to localise production in efforts to diversify the supply of chips, which are essential to the defence, automotive and electronics industries.
The $40 billion investment in Arizona allows TSMC to add capacity outside Taiwan, where it faces constraints on land, power, water and labour.
But the company views Japan as a more natural fit in terms of work culture, and its government is easy to deal with and generous with subsidies, the sources said.
"The relationship between TSMC and the Japanese government is mutually beneficial," said Lucy Chen, an analyst at Isaiah Research.
Japan's advantages for the chipmaker include its network of chip equipment and materials suppliers, similarities in work culture and proximity to Taiwan, she added.
TSMC sees workers in Japan, which is known for long hours and strong commitment to employers, as more willing to work a punishing schedule with overtime as chipmaking machines run around the clock in sterile clean rooms, the sources said.
"A lot of machines cannot be shut down because it costs TSMC to recalibrate on rebooting," said a chip industry executive.
It is only a two-hour flight to Kyushu, where TSMC is partnering with companies including Sony, a leading maker of image sensors.
Taiwanese workers arriving to help set up the fab are welcome, and the chipmaker will pay higher wages to secure local employees as it competes with rivals such as foundry venture Rapidus, the sources said.
"It seems to us that TSMC is really positive about investment in Japan," said a senior official at the powerful Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), which has offered subsidies worth up to 476 billion yen ($3.23 billion) for the first fab.
"We will really welcome the second fab project in general but we have to see the detail first," the official said.
While many equipment and materials makers already have global operations, to meet its exacting standards TSMC has also brought suppliers to Japan from Taiwan, the sources said.
RISING CAPITAL SPENDING
TSMC's enthusiasm for Japan is being tempered by concerns about higher costs across the business and worries about the macro environment, the sources said.
Capital expenditure ballooned to $36 billion last year from $10 billion in 2018, with the company forecasting a slightly smaller outflow this year.
TSMC thought costs to build a fab would be 20% higher in the U.S. than in Taiwan but they are actually about 50% higher, an investor briefed by company management said.
The chipmaker plans to build an $11 billion fab in Germany with local firms but is also concerned the work culture there, with long vacations and strong unions, will hit output, the sources said.
Investors worry about the effect of higher costs but "the impact on TSMC today has not been that big because its leading technology gives it pricing power," said Brady Wang, an analyst at research firm Counterpoint.
($1 = 147.2300 yen)

(Reporting by Sam Nussey, Fanny Potkin and Sarah Wu; Additional reporting by Miho Uranaka; Editing by Jamie Freed)
 
Fabs are the most automated manufacturing facilities, yet, to produce the quality required, it requires constant human intervention. Thus the characteristics of the workers, matter, a lot.

My prediction: TSMC will be fine in Germany. German technical education is superior.
 
Fabs are the most automated manufacturing facilities, yet, to produce the quality required, it requires constant human intervention. Thus the characteristics of the workers, matter, a lot.

My prediction: TSMC will be fine in Germany. German technical education is superior.
I dont they work til you drop mentality though.
Luckily got other EU countries to provide such labour 😆😆😆
 
I live in Phoenix metro area. There isn't a shortage of hard working Mexicans working in extremely hot weather for low wages, and lots more are crossing the border every day. I employ an unskilled handyman full time (US citizen) who cannot survive unless I create work for him. He told me about the number of unskilled laborers gathered a few blocks south of Chandler is increasing. This pushes wages way down. It seems to me that if TSMC is patient and holds their ground, they can easily knock out the unions.

How long does it take to train extremely motivated people to learn what is needed to bust the union and replace the unmotivated? What percentage of the TSMC workers for the next 2 years need to know chemistry and physics?
 
Couple more thoughts:
-I think TSMC, Intel and Samsung need to make a case that fab manufacturing is professional, something you can do for life, and demonstrate how that professional career works. We're not there yet.
-In Germany manufacturing is 70-80% of the economy and is thus in higher esteem, and is professional. Japan and Taiwan and Korea are similar. That's the main difference with the US.
-UPS union is getting drivers to $150K a year, which is the threshold for fabs as well. That may be too rich for TSMC, not because they can't pay it, but because it will blow the roof off the pay structure in Taiwan.
-I think TSMC will succeed in the US, Germany and Japan, but their pay structure won't survive globalization; it must inflate, a lot. You can't have R&D people earning less than the average line worker in AZ. Which must be one thing they are starring at right now.
 
In the 1980s and 1990s I spent time in Japan working with some of the top Japanese semiconductor manufacturers. It was an amazing experience but I walked away wondering how the US would be able to compete. The Japanese people I met worked very hard to honor their families and country. Back in the United States we worked 9-5 for a paycheck with the dreams of lucrative stock options.

Today in the US I would say it is even worse. We work from home now a couple days a week or more so 24/7 manufacturing jobs are not first choice for people who want work/life balance.

In my opinion TSMC's experience in AZ, Germany, and Japan will be quite different. The worst of course will be AZ (corrupt unions) and the best will be Japan with Germany (also unions) in the middle.

I will write more about this but Japan has a long semiconductor history. Here is a few words from my friend CHAT-GPT 4.0:

The semiconductor industry in Japan has a long and storied history, dating back to the mid-20th century. Japan has been a significant player in the global semiconductor market and has contributed to the development of many advanced technologies in this field. Here's an overview of the Japanese semiconductor industry:
  1. Historical Background: The Japanese semiconductor industry began to take shape in the 1950s and 1960s, with companies like Sony and Toshiba being early pioneers. They focused on transistors and diodes initially.
  2. Technological Advancements: Japanese companies played a crucial role in the development of various semiconductor technologies, including memory chips (DRAM and NAND flash), microprocessors, and image sensors. Companies like Toshiba, Hitachi, and NEC were leaders in these areas.
  3. Government Support: The Japanese government has historically supported the semiconductor industry through policies and investments. Organizations like the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) played a key role in coordinating government and industry efforts.
  4. Research and Development: Japan has been home to many semiconductor research institutes and universities conducting cutting-edge research in materials science, fabrication processes, and chip design.
  5. Market Competition: Japanese companies have faced intense competition from other global semiconductor giants, particularly those in the United States and South Korea. Despite their early successes, Japanese firms have struggled to maintain a dominant position in the market.
  6. Consolidation: Over the years, there has been a significant amount of consolidation in the Japanese semiconductor industry. Companies like Renesas Electronics and Kioxia (formerly Toshiba Memory) have emerged from mergers and spin-offs.
  7. Global Impact: Japanese semiconductor companies have been integral to various industries, including consumer electronics, automotive, and telecommunications. The country's expertise in semiconductor manufacturing has had a global impact.
  8. Challenges: The Japanese semiconductor industry faces various challenges, including rising manufacturing costs, competition from other nations, and a shortage of skilled engineers.
  9. Recent Developments: In recent years, there has been a renewed focus on semiconductor manufacturing in Japan due to concerns about the global supply chain's vulnerabilities. The government has announced initiatives to support domestic semiconductor production and research.
  10. Collaboration: Japanese semiconductor companies often collaborate with international partners on research and development projects. These collaborations aim to pool resources and expertise to stay competitive in the global market.
  11. Emerging Technologies: Japan continues to invest in emerging technologies like quantum computing and advanced packaging techniques to maintain its position in the semiconductor industry.
Overall, Japan's semiconductor industry has a rich history and remains a significant player in the global semiconductor market, even though it faces challenges from competitors worldwide. The industry's success continues to be driven by innovation, government support, and collaboration with international partners.
 
The number 1 decision in where to locate a Fab is ALWAYS subsidies. The number 2 is usually ease of working with government and support for things like water, power, infrastructure. Labor is 3rd (engineers and tech). Fabs are staffed from all over the US/world and given time, labor is not an issue. Most US fabs have very hard working people who work extra hours to be successful. It takes time and training to get the right people but it is possible and I have seen it done in multiple states with multiple companies
 
In the 1980s and 1990s I spent time in Japan working with some of the top Japanese semiconductor manufacturers. It was an amazing experience but I walked away wondering how the US would be able to compete. The Japanese people I met worked very hard to honor their families and country. Back in the United States we worked 9-5 for a paycheck with the dreams of lucrative stock options.

Today in the US I would say it is even worse. We work from home now a couple days a week or more so 24/7 manufacturing jobs are not first choice for people who want work/life balance.

In my opinion TSMC's experience in AZ, Germany, and Japan will be quite different. The worst of course will be AZ (corrupt unions) and the best will be Japan with Germany (also unions) in the middle.

I will write more about this but Japan has a long semiconductor history. Here is a few words from my friend CHAT-GPT 4.0:

The semiconductor industry in Japan has a long and storied history, dating back to the mid-20th century. Japan has been a significant player in the global semiconductor market and has contributed to the development of many advanced technologies in this field. Here's an overview of the Japanese semiconductor industry:
  1. Historical Background: The Japanese semiconductor industry began to take shape in the 1950s and 1960s, with companies like Sony and Toshiba being early pioneers. They focused on transistors and diodes initially.
  2. Technological Advancements: Japanese companies played a crucial role in the development of various semiconductor technologies, including memory chips (DRAM and NAND flash), microprocessors, and image sensors. Companies like Toshiba, Hitachi, and NEC were leaders in these areas.
  3. Government Support: The Japanese government has historically supported the semiconductor industry through policies and investments. Organizations like the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) played a key role in coordinating government and industry efforts.
  4. Research and Development: Japan has been home to many semiconductor research institutes and universities conducting cutting-edge research in materials science, fabrication processes, and chip design.
  5. Market Competition: Japanese companies have faced intense competition from other global semiconductor giants, particularly those in the United States and South Korea. Despite their early successes, Japanese firms have struggled to maintain a dominant position in the market.
  6. Consolidation: Over the years, there has been a significant amount of consolidation in the Japanese semiconductor industry. Companies like Renesas Electronics and Kioxia (formerly Toshiba Memory) have emerged from mergers and spin-offs.
  7. Global Impact: Japanese semiconductor companies have been integral to various industries, including consumer electronics, automotive, and telecommunications. The country's expertise in semiconductor manufacturing has had a global impact.
  8. Challenges: The Japanese semiconductor industry faces various challenges, including rising manufacturing costs, competition from other nations, and a shortage of skilled engineers.
  9. Recent Developments: In recent years, there has been a renewed focus on semiconductor manufacturing in Japan due to concerns about the global supply chain's vulnerabilities. The government has announced initiatives to support domestic semiconductor production and research.
  10. Collaboration: Japanese semiconductor companies often collaborate with international partners on research and development projects. These collaborations aim to pool resources and expertise to stay competitive in the global market.
  11. Emerging Technologies: Japan continues to invest in emerging technologies like quantum computing and advanced packaging techniques to maintain its position in the semiconductor industry.
Overall, Japan's semiconductor industry has a rich history and remains a significant player in the global semiconductor market, even though it faces challenges from competitors worldwide. The industry's success continues to be driven by innovation, government support, and collaboration with international partners.

One of the challenges of Japanese semiconductor industry is that relatively it's very weak in the fabless design segment. It's very expensive to build a fab and a fab needs non-stop of ideas, innovations, and orders to fill its capacity.
 
The number 1 decision in where to locate a Fab is ALWAYS subsidies. The number 2 is usually ease of working with government and support for things like water, power, infrastructure. Labor is 3rd (engineers and tech). Fabs are staffed from all over the US/world and given time, labor is not an issue. Most US fabs have very hard working people who work extra hours to be successful. It takes time and training to get the right people but it is possible and I have seen it done in multiple states with multiple companies

Yes, it takes time and training to get the right people. Unfortunately some people will not be hired and some people will be let go.

This is the reality of free market economy that politicians and unions might not like.
 
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