Elon Musk told Ron Baron he's building a chip that will be 2 to 3 times better than NVIDIA - at 10% of the cost
- Thread starter soAsian
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coldsolder215
Active member
Yeah I remember when I was new to the game and didn't know what I didn't know and assumed I could do whatever I wanted without repercussion. Got laid off 3 years later.
10% of the cost, or 10% of the price? Nvidia's gross margins on GPUs are at least 75%... I hope Musk uses more precision in his mental physical design than his bravado statements.
It is also interesting to ask, where are the EUV machines coming from? All of the other fab machinery necessary from back-ordered companies like Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Tokyo Electron? And it's all going to be up and running in three years? With a team that probably hasn't worked together before? Color me skeptical.
Maybe there is one way... Musk could acquire IFS from Intel.
It is also interesting to ask, where are the EUV machines coming from? All of the other fab machinery necessary from back-ordered companies like Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Tokyo Electron? And it's all going to be up and running in three years? With a team that probably hasn't worked together before? Color me skeptical.
Maybe there is one way... Musk could acquire IFS from Intel.
Xebec
Well-known member
For the math to work, Musk would end up needing a chip that is 3X more efficient per die area for whatever the use case is, at comparable (or better) yields.
A 75% margin means Nvidia is making $3 for every $4 sold, reducing the margin to $0 gives you your first ~ 3X improvement in cost.
3X more efficient per die area for a specific function doesn't seem implausible given Nvidia has been projecting >100X improvements in some use cases between Hopper and Vera Rubin.
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That said - this is definitely a hubris conversation, and there's never going to be enough technical details available to make a judgment during a call/podcast like this.
I agree. Musk should take the advice of my early career mentor. My mentor advocated "Precision, Rigor, and Clarity". Musk communicates with none of these.
It's amazing that Musk is the richest person in the world, considering his, uh, lack of discipline and sensitivity to the impact of what he says on others. Two of our children were and are shopping for EVs this year. Both adamantly refuse to consider a Tesla because of Musk's communications. One chose a Hyundai, and the other is on the waitlist for a new Rivian. I warned both I thought the Model Y was a better deal overall, but their pushback was absolute. I wonder if they'll refuse to use Starlink Internet on airline flights to spite Musk, even if it's free.
Xebec
Well-known member
Both adamantly refuse to consider a Tesla because of Musk's communications. One chose a Hyundai, and the other is on the waitlist for a new Rivian. I warned both I thought the Model Y was a better deal overall, but their pushback was absolute. I wonder if they'll refuse to use Starlink Internet on airline flights to spite Musk, even if it's free.
Found the family redditors ;-)
EDIT: Hope they don't run into the scenario where if the Hyaundai battery fails, they ask more for a new battery than the price of a whole new EV
-- https://globalnews.ca/news/10103753/electric-car-shock-50000-battery/ (this has happened a few times)MKWVentures
Moderator
Even Tesla thought wireless power was the future. His fans claim he actually delivered on it. Sometimes brilliant people are idiots at times LOL
Just ask Elon for dates and commits and then hold him accountable.
Just ask Elon for dates and commits and then hold him accountable.
Which is why for EVs I always recommend a lease over a purchase, and both listen to me on that factor. I drove the new Hyundai during my last visit, and I admit I liked it more than I thought I would. As an aside however, why the hell does every manufacturer now make their driver controls unique and different, so that when you get any EV you can't figure out what-does-what without minutes of exploration? When I got into the driver's seat of the Hyundai I told my daughter I had two words for the designer of the controls, and that those words were not "Happy Easter"!Found the family redditors ;-)
EDIT: Hope they don't run into the scenario where if the Hyaundai battery fails, they ask more for a new battery than the price of a whole new EV
Xebec
Well-known member
Last post because OT. I rented a Hyundai EV once. The radio volume was loud but the navigation was too low to hear. I had to stop the car and go three menus deep to adjust navigation volume, be used there was no other way to do it.
Good luck for your children but unfortunately EVs from legacy automakers make bad impressions because of terrible UIs and sluggish infotainment systems and navigation. They also put unneeded maintenance requirements in place to please the dealers - wasting the owners time and money unnecessarily. That's not behavior I'd want to reward with a purchase.