You are currently viewing SemiWiki as a guest which gives you limited access to the site. To view blog comments and experience other SemiWiki features you must be a registered member. Registration is fast, simple, and absolutely free so please, join our community today!




Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 11

Thread: Will Intel's transition to data-centric business work?

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1
    Given: 0

    Will Intel's transition to data-centric business work?

    Intel reported 34% jump in 3Q profits, primarily due to strong growth in its data-centric businesses. Even though the PC segment, which brings in lion's share of total revenue, revenue was flat, it was able to post revenues of $16Bil, which is up 2%. 3Q results show that $INTC's transition from PC market to data-centric business is bearing fruit.

    3Q data-centric businesses grew double digits (IoT revenues jumped 23%). As the PC shipments doesn't show any sign of improvement, its PC segment growth remains flat. It now expects to see high growth in IoT, AI, autonomous driving and cloud markets. $INTC expects FY17 EPS to be $3.25 and revenue of $62Bil, up $700MM from prior forecast.

    Will Intel be able to take on AMD and still make sure it is maintaining its market share?

    Intel's 3Q Highlights

    1 Not allowed!
    Last edited by Daniel Nenni; 3 Weeks Ago at 06:10 AM.
     

  2. #2
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    4,013
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 716
    Given: 2,031
    I think that will be a difficult transition especially when they have the same Intel management/culture. Intel has tried to pivot many times and have failed. They are very lucky the general purpose CPU business has been a constant over the years with little or no competition. GPUs and AI chips may change that, AMD as well, but I still do not see Intel as being able to pivot without a serious management AND culture change. Just my opinion.

    4 Not allowed!
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

  3. #3
    Influencer
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    59
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 56
    Given: 21
    Quote Originally Posted by Subramaniam View Post
    Intel reported 34% jump in 3Q profits, primarily due to strong growth in its data-centric businesses. Even though the PC segment, which brings in lion's share of total revenue, revenue was flat, it was able to post revenues of $16Bil, which is up 2%. 3Q results show that $INTC's transition from PC market to data-centric business is bearing fruit.

    3Q data-centric businesses grew double digits (IoT revenues jumped 23%). As the PC shipments doesn't show any sign of improvement, its PC segment growth remains flat. It now expects to see high growth in IoT, AI, autonomous driving and cloud markets. $INTC expects FY17 EPS to be $3.25 and revenue of $62Bil, up $700MM from prior forecast.

    Will Intel be able to take on AMD and still make sure it is maintaining its market share?

    Intel's 3Q Highlights
    Intel is at close to 100% x86 server market share. There is no way thats sustainable given that AMD has very competitive EPYC server chips. EPYC server platforms from OEMs are arrving in Q4 2017 but the real server volume ramp happens in 2018. AMD has a competitive CPU architecture and has just started introducing desktop, notebook and server products. These products will ramp in 2018 and take significant market share. I think Raven Ridge is a very impressive notebook chip. imo AMD should be able to get 25% desktop share , 20% notebook share and 10% server market share by end of 2018. The real test for AMD is if they can follow up with impressive 7nm chips in 2019. If they do that I think a tipping point will be reached and Intel will not be able to stop further significant revenue and profitability reduction.

    1 Not allowed!
     

  4. #4
    Top Influencer
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    155
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 113
    Given: 14
    Here is the problem: The large volumes of the PC business is necessary for Intel to keep the lead in the data center business. Without that volume to spread the costs over things like building leading edge foundries, investments in architecture, R&D spending, are not economic. I think cracks will start to emerge as the foundries overtake Intel at the leading edge over the next couple of years.

    What Intel is doing is retreating upmarket where margins are higher, but this is what exposes companies to disruption in Christensens definition of the term.

    2 Not allowed!
     

  5. #5
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    4,013
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 716
    Given: 2,031
    Nvidia is one of the best pivoting companies in semiconductor. Can you imagine if Intel bought Nvidia and installed Jensen as CEO instead of BK back in the day?

    0 Not allowed!
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

  6. #6
    Expert hist78's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    576
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 287
    Given: 279
    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    Nvidia is one of the best pivoting companies in semiconductor. Can you imagine if Intel bought Nvidia and installed Jensen as CEO instead of BK back in the day?
    Almost impossible. Because it's Intel and often it doesn't like to do thing logically.

    0 Not allowed!
     

  7. #7
    Top Influencer
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    155
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 113
    Given: 14
    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    Nvidia is one of the best pivoting companies in semiconductor. Can you imagine if Intel bought Nvidia and installed Jensen as CEO instead of BK back in the day?
    I think Otellini was more responsible than BK for Intel problems today, although BK did not help at all. Never let an MBA run a tech company, they are all sheep. In MBA in my mind means "I am risk adverse and money focused." That's great for running a bank, not a company that needs to constantly stay at the leading edge and fight off disruption.

    2 Not allowed!
    Last edited by count; 2 Weeks Ago at 10:47 AM.
     

  8. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Boulder, CO and San Jose, CA
    Posts
    14
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2
    Given: 0
    Quote Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post
    imo AMD should be able to get 25% desktop share , 20% notebook share and 10% server market share by end of 2018.
    What are you smoking, crack?

    Simple thought experiment for you. How many chips in each class does Intel ship in one year? How many of those contracts are up for renewal during 2018, and how many are multi-year, and would require re-negotiating? What does that mean for the number of a) contracts, and b) chips, that AMD would need to close.

    Intel is in many things slow. It's an unwieldy beast. It's made many strategy and execution errors over the years. These are much easier to see in hindsight, when you're looking into the past with 20-20 vision.

    0 Not allowed!
     

  9. #9
    Influencer
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    59
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 56
    Given: 21
    Quote Originally Posted by SimonYoung View Post
    What are you smoking, crack?

    Simple thought experiment for you. How many chips in each class does Intel ship in one year? How many of those contracts are up for renewal during 2018, and how many are multi-year, and would require re-negotiating? What does that mean for the number of a) contracts, and b) chips, that AMD would need to close.

    Intel is in many things slow. It's an unwieldy beast. It's made many strategy and execution errors over the years. These are much easier to see in hindsight, when you're looking into the past with 20-20 vision.
    Lets check back a year from now on how AMD fares in market share in each segment.

    0 Not allowed!
     

  10. #10
    Top Influencer
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    328
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 155
    Given: 0
    Quote Originally Posted by Subramaniam View Post
    Intel reported 34% jump in 3Q profits, primarily due to strong growth in its data-centric businesses. Even though the PC segment, which brings in lion's share of total revenue, revenue was flat, it was able to post revenues of $16Bil, which is up 2%. 3Q results show that $INTC's transition from PC market to data-centric business is bearing fruit.

    3Q data-centric businesses grew double digits (IoT revenues jumped 23%). As the PC shipments doesn't show any sign of improvement, its PC segment growth remains flat. It now expects to see high growth in IoT, AI, autonomous driving and cloud markets. $INTC expects FY17 EPS to be $3.25 and revenue of $62Bil, up $700MM from prior forecast.

    Will Intel be able to take on AMD and still make sure it is maintaining its market share?

    Intel's 3Q Highlights
    Intel remains the dominant R&D spender in semiconductors, which helps (but does not guarantee) their economic moat.

    I think their ownership of X86 is a significant moat. Qualcomm can't move into Intel's core market without a license, and Intel probably wants royalties on the device value (turnabout is such a bitch Qualcomm). On a $50,000 server, that would be quite a royalty. Eventually, Qualcomm is going to have to pay, just like AMD pays.

    Speaking of pivots: IM Flash is now producing their very competitive 3D NAND (64 layer) and Intel will reap 49% of that bonanza. Memory is the new logic.

    Management quality: Intel CEO isn't facing 5 years in jail. Intel doesn't face the retirement of a 30+ year leader who is basically irreplaceable. Intel isn't being swarmed by anti-trust judgments. And Intel isn't owned by a frontier market sovereign wealth fund. When you consider the other horses in this race, Intel management doesn't seem so bad.

    0 Not allowed!
     

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •