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Thread: TSMC Investor Call Discussion: What is Apple doing next?

  1. #21
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
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    TSMC's revenue is up 12% for the first half of 2017 and full year guidance is 5-10%? That does not bode well for Apple in my opinion. I'm also wondering if TSMC ships chips to Apple (InFOs) versus wafers? That would delay revenue?


    Quote Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post
    Daniel I think its nothing to worry. If we look at 2016 revenues by month July 2016 fell Y-o-Y versus July 2015 . Overall for year to date 2017 is up on revenues over 2016.

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
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    The revenues from Aug 2017 onwards are what I would be looking forward to. The revenues from Aug 2017 to H1 2018 will determine if Apple is on to another super-cycle with the launch of OLED iPhone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    TSMC's revenue is up 12% for the first half of 2017 and full year guidance is 5-10%? That does not bode well for Apple in my opinion. I'm also wondering if TSMC ships chips to Apple (InFOs) versus wafers? That would delay revenue?
    We should also remember that QCOM (one of TSMC's largest customers) left TSMC at 14nm and is now in full (cost effective) production at Samsung with their SoCs and Modems. Which will not only eat into TSMCs / QCOM's 28nm installed base, it will displace TSMC 16nm SoCs from Apple, MediaTek, and others. QCOM is also in production (not cost effective yet) at Samsung 10nm. From what I was told Tier 2, 3, 4, etc... (China) smartphone vendors are now ramping 14nm phones.

    I'm just not convinced TSMC 2017 growth is going to be in double digits like previous years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    TSMC's revenue is up 12% for the first half of 2017 and full year guidance is 5-10%? That does not bode well for Apple in my opinion. I'm also wondering if TSMC ships chips to Apple (InFOs) versus wafers? That would delay revenue?
    TSMC's revenue is up 5% for H1 2017 versus H1 2016. So I don't know how you got 12%. If TSMC hits full year growth of 10% their H2 2017 revenues would be massive at 594963 millions of Taiwan dollars. I think it all comes down to Apple and how well their supply chain can churn out the normal iPhones and the OLED iPhone.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    We should also remember that QCOM (one of TSMC's largest customers) left TSMC at 14nm and is now in full (cost effective) production at Samsung with their SoCs and Modems. Which will not only eat into TSMCs / QCOM's 28nm installed base, it will displace TSMC 16nm SoCs from Apple, MediaTek, and others. QCOM is also in production (not cost effective yet) at Samsung 10nm. From what I was told Tier 2, 3, 4, etc... (China) smartphone vendors are now ramping 14nm phones.

    I'm just not convinced TSMC 2017 growth is going to be in double digits like previous years.
    TSMC is now the exclusive supplier to Apple starting from the Apple A10 generation and for the foreseeable future. During the days when Qualcomm was at TSMC 28nm Apple was at Samsung 32nm/28nm. Now both companies have changed foundry partners but I think TSMC is benefiting far more from gaining Apple than losing Qualcomm. Apple is also bringing the new OLED iphone which should further spur sales growth. iPad seems to be recovering atleast in terms of unit sales from Apple's recent quarterly reports. Nvidia's growing at a crazy pace every quarter. With Volta Nvidia will keep growing at record pace. TSMC is well positioned for 2017 and future as they are the primary/majority supplier to Apple and Nvidia.

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  4. #24
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
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    Yes, 5% not 12% my fingers went astray.

    Apple first went to TSMC with the iPhone 6 (2014) which was 20nm. In 2013 TSMC did $20.11B and in 2014 they did $25.17B. Thank you Apple.

    In 2015 TSMC did $26.61B while Apple split the iPhone 6s business between Samsung and TSMC.

    In 2016 TSMC did $29.43B with an exclusive on iPhone 7.

    Thus far this year TSMC did $7.51B in Q1 and $7.06B in Q2 which puts 1H 2017 at $14.65B.

    Will Apple really ship enough for TSMC to do 10% YoY growth? Will the iPhone 8 have a QCOM 14nm modem (Samsung)?

    Nvidia is certainly the upside but will it be enough? My guess is that TSMC will be closer to 5% growth versus 10% in 2017.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    Yes, 5% not 12% my fingers went astray.

    Apple first went to TSMC with the iPhone 6 (2014) which was 20nm. In 2013 TSMC did $20.11B and in 2014 they did $25.17B. Thank you Apple.

    In 2015 TSMC did $26.61B while Apple split the iPhone 6s business between Samsung and TSMC.

    In 2016 TSMC did $29.43B with an exclusive on iPhone 7.

    Thus far this year TSMC did $7.51B in Q1 and $7.06B in Q2 which puts 1H 2017 at $14.65B.

    Will Apple really ship enough for TSMC to do 10% YoY growth? Will the iPhone 8 have a QCOM 14nm modem (Samsung)?

    Nvidia is certainly the upside but will it be enough? My guess is that TSMC will be closer to 5% growth versus 10% in 2017.
    The ball is in Apple's court along with their supply chain. TSMC will churn out how many ever chips Apple wants. Anyway I think TSMC will do quite well this year. Looking ahead TSMC 7nm has a 9-12 month head start over the other foundries and I think they will dominate 7nm node with atleast 65% market share. I believe GF will come in 2nd and Samsung 3rd at 7nm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by raghu78 View Post
    The ball is in Apple's court along with their supply chain. TSMC will churn out how many ever chips Apple wants. Anyway I think TSMC will do quite well this year. Looking ahead TSMC 7nm has a 9-12 month head start over the other foundries and I think they will dominate 7nm node with at least 65% market share. I believe GF will come in 2nd and Samsung 3rd at 7nm.
    Still digging into it with the fabless ecosystem and Apple chip supply chain........ but I think you may be right. Double digit growth for TSMC in 2017 and probably 2018.

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