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Thread: Intel delays mass production of 10nm CPUs to 2019

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    Intel still has not learned the transparency lesson. In this day and age you can run but you cannot hide....
    Intel 10nm is pretty much a disaster. There are multiple sources now indicating that 10nm from Intel will arrive in 2020. The entire management at Intel needs to take responsibility for this debacle. I think Brian Krzanich will be gone by the time AMD ships 7nm Rome sometime in H1 2019. Intel is going to bleed share rapidly in servers which is their highest margin business. I expect Intel will go through major reorganization and huge layoffs by 2020. If Intel 7nm does not arrive in time to compete with foundry 3nm (sometime in H1 2022) then they will be forced to go fabless. Its going to be gut wrenching to watch 2019 and 2020 unfold if you are Intel shareholder or employee.

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  2. #32
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    It is not rumor. BK said it himself. Start of ramping in second half of 2019. Even if it will be without problems, it will take some time till whey will be able to ship anything from HVM.

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  3. #33
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    There is also some other news that Intel did not have enough 14nm capacity for some Coffee Lake chipset. It seems their problems began at 14nm. Too many product versions, or too few process modules.

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    Last edited by Fred Chen; 1 Week Ago at 11:39 PM.
     

  4. #34
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    Then the big question is how Intel's 7nm process is coming along? This question should be in everyone's mind yet I could not find any mention of it from Intel (not that we would have any reason to believe what Intel has to say about it).
    This is where their lack of transparency will bite them, when it becomes clear to everyone how critical it will be for Intel to deliver 7nm in time, investors will have lost confidence in BK's words and he will be out (probably taking many others with him).

    They clearly lost the race to 7/10nm and will suffer a lot from it, but is there any hope they will become competitive again for 5/7nm?

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  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by mbello View Post
    Then the big question is how Intel's 7nm process is coming along? This question should be in everyone's mind yet I could not find any mention of it from Intel (not that we would have any reason to believe what Intel has to say about it).
    This is where their lack of transparency will bite them, when it becomes clear to everyone how critical it will be for Intel to deliver 7nm in time, investors will have lost confidence in BK's words and he will be out (probably taking many others with him).

    They clearly lost the race to 7/10nm and will suffer a lot from it, but is there any hope they will become competitive again for 5/7nm?
    Unfortunately it will be some time before EUV is ready for HVM for a full EUV implementation. TSMC is starting with a limited amount of layers to get the throughput/yield needed to run their business at a profit. Samsung is implementing more layers on their 7nm but Samsung has never really let bad yield stop them since they have no transparency in their foundry operations.

    Intel on the other hand will do a full EUV implementation at 7nm and they will not release it until yield is >80% (my opinion). That could push Intel 7nm out to 2022. There is no doubt that Intel will have the "best" EUV implementation at 7nm just like Intel has the best 14nm FinFet implementation but the best does not count for much when you are years late.

    I have done quite a bit of due diligence on EUV design inside the ecosystem and the only company I can find that is actively doing EUV design is QCOM and that is for Samsung 7nm. Even though Samsung says 7nm production will happen in June my sources say in reality it will be 1H 2019.

    In my opinion most TSMC customers will skip 7+EUV for 5nm EUV and will start designing later this year for production in 2020 (Apple will be first). Apple will do an optimized 7nm chip for A13 in 2019 (A12 is also 7nm) like they did at 16nm for the A9 and A10.

    Sound reasonable?

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  6. #36
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    Intel is probably considering going directly to high-NA EUV for 7nm.

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  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by hist78 View Post
    Can Intel just stop predicting the 10nm HVM date after all their past predictions didn't come true? It's meaningless and can lead to even more dangerous habits.
    What's really hurting Intel is not the delay itself, but how the delay happened. It got postponed 3 times and each time a stop gap solution got shoved in - Kaby lake /coffee lake/ cascade lake. If they knew from the beginning that 10nm would be delayed 3 years, then they would have had time to design a proper Skylake update with real architecture improvements

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