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Thread: Semi Content in Electronic Systems Forecast to Reach 31.4% in 2018

  1. #1
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    Semi Content in Electronic Systems Forecast to Reach 31.4% in 2018

    Semi content to surpass 30% this year, smashing the previous record high set just last year.

    In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2018 (to be released at the end of July), IC Insights forecasts that the 2018 global electronic systems market will grow 5% to $1,622 billion while the worldwide semiconductor market is expected to surge by 14% this year to $509.1 billion, exceeding the $500.0 billion level for the first time. If the 2018 forecasts come to fruition, the average semiconductor content in an electronic system will reach 31.4%, breaking the all-time record of 28.8% that was set in 2017 (Figure 1).

    Figure 1

    Historically, the driving force behind the higher average annual growth rate of the semiconductor industry as compared to the electronic systems market is the increasing value or content of semiconductors used in electronic systems. With global unit shipments of cellphones (-1%), automobiles (3%), and PCs (-1%) forecast to be weak in 2018, the disparity between the moderate growth in the electronic systems market and high growth of the semiconductor market is directly due to the increasing content of semiconductors in electronic systems.

    While the trend of increasing semiconductor content has been evident for the past 30 years, the big jump in the average semiconductor content in electronic systems in 2018 is expected to be primarily due to the huge surge in DRAM and NAND flash ASPs and average electronic system sales growth this year. After slipping to 30.2% in 2020, the semiconductor content percentage is expected to climb to a new high of 31.5% in 2022. IC Insights does not anticipate the percentage will fall below 30% any year through the forecast period.

    The trend of increasingly higher semiconductor value in electronic systems has a limit. Extrapolating an annual increase in the percent semiconductor figure indefinitely would, at some point in the future, result in the semiconductor content of an electronic system reaching 100%. Whatever the ultimate ceiling is, once it is reached, the average annual growth for the semiconductor industry will closely track that of the electronic systems market (i.e., about 4%-5% per year).

    The 250+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2018 edition of The McClean Report further describes IC Insights’ IC market forecast data for 2017-2022.

    Report Details: The 2018 McClean Report
    Additional details on the IC market forecast and other trends within the IC industry will be provided in the Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update, and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual-user license to the 2018 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,290 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,290.

    To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: IC Insights | Semiconductor Market Research.

    PDF Version of This Bulletin

    A PDF version of this Research Bulletin can be downloaded from our website at Research Bulletins | IC Insights

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    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

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    I'll bet MEMs growth will the largest area of growth, replacing many, many devices and lowering costs dramatically in most areas, just like music went from records, to tape, to CDs, to electronic storage. The areas were MEMs can dramatically reduce costs, increase performance and create entirely new uses is almost beyond the imagination and has extended even to outer space with very small cube satellites weighing as little as a kilo. We have just started the MEMs revolution and most are going to be built by semi companies. Even Morris Chang said MEMs will be one of the greatest opportunities for mankind. MEMs in SOCs with semis will be a market of staggering size. Technological advances in batteries are going to drive the diversity and market for both. As I have written in previous post, new materials in batteries have a theoretical potential of a ten fold increase in battery capacity that will open whole new worlds and markets.

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    This is what you would expect at the end of Moore's Law. Its ramifications will be felt in every nook and cranny of our global society, but first it will appear in the creeping semiconductor costs shown in the chart. Then (as we have also seen in phones) high end consumer devices and the upgrades they drive will weaken. We may get to AR phones but VR should remain an expensive niche. We will move from unit upgrade cycles to break and fix cycles, lengthening ownership from 3-ish years to 5-8, just as we have with our cars as we lost interest. Unit growth in IT overall will be relegated to fewer high-ROI sources, like advanced centralized AI-driven solutions. As the virtuous economic cycle enabled by Moore's Law further weakens system architectures will change further (maybe MEMs, definitely more specialized) and software architectures will be altered from agility to efficiency. We have already seen CPUs roll over in favor of more efficient alternatives like AISC accelerators. Specialized memory should be a growth area. As shrinkage gets ever more expensive and complex, stasis will ensue. Its been a good 50 years and we have a few left, but the end game is becoming visible.

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