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Thread: Intel in Serious Trouble?

  1. #11
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    mbello, the reason I think there may be a problem with 3dXpoint is that when I do a search on deliveries, which Intel said should be in full production now is that I can't find any evidence of large scale deliveries or companies touting products containing the technology. At this point if production was in even near fully scaled we would see it on the market. My feeling is there may be either a speed bump or a serious problem in bringing it to full, economical production. As one respondent said we should know 6/29 when Micron, Intel's partner in this venture reports their quarterly results. I hope it is just production glitches holding this up and Intel/Micron work out the details. I follow this closely for I have substantial holdings in Micron, so I don't take this lightly. Intel/Micron could easily clear the air with a single announcement and have not done so, a very poor move at best, to keep customers and the market in the dark. As an investor with a substantial interest in the success of 3dXpoint, I hope things work out for the best, but don't like how current information on progress or lack there of is being handled. TSM has always been straight up and I also have a substantial holdings in. Intel should learn from TSM. I wish Intel had another Andy Grove.

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    Last edited by Arthur Hanson; 06-26-2017 at 04:09 AM.
     

  2. #12
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    I'm thinking that it must be very hard to compete against a mature technology like NAND on price.
    There's an interesting comment in EETimes article about XPoint memory: 3DXP's Memory Role Unclear | EE Times
    Flash-memory analyst Jim Handy is quoted as saying:
    "that the manufacturing cost of the 3DXP drives that started shipping earlier this year could be an order of magnitude more than their high prices."

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  3. #13
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    Optane (with its promise of 1000x faster than NAND and ready for persistent DRAM applications) was announced in mid-2015.
    A year later we were told that select enterprise customers could test/benchmark their apps against a cloud-storage system based on Optane.
    What Intel finally shipped after eighteen months is very expensive, high performing yes --- but high-performing along particular metrics (like 99th percentile latency), not uniformly blowing away NAND the way it was suggested.
    It doesn't help that the use cases Intel has suggested for selling Optane drives are idiotic ("instead of using a 128GB flash drive to accelerate your PC, why don't you pay more for this 32GB Optane drive whose additional performance will make no use to your perceived speed?")

    And THE supposed value case for 3D-Xpoint, persistent DRAM, remains MIA.

    All of these are not the pattern of a technology doing well. You don't fire up the hype machine for technology you don't plan to introduce (in substantially neutered form) until two years later. You don't sell lousy pointless products if you can create more compelling alternatives. (To give a calibration point --- you don't see Apple announcing ARKit and promising "you'll get to use this cool tech in 2019, maybe 2020". Likewise at IO, Google announces what will be in the next version of Android; there isn't a wave of hype around what won't ship for years --- or if there is, like Google Glass, it's subsequently accepted that the project went very wrong, not denied...)

    The claim is not that 3D-Xpoint is dead or can never work or whatever, it is "something very serious [with Optane]". This is essentially a claim about timing --- Intel is not rolling out this technology on a timing schedule that makes sense. No-one is (yet...) making more serious claims like "Optane is dead" --- we don't have info to decide one way or another.
    IF Intel can fix whatever is preventing its use in larger SSDs (yield?) or in DRAM (power?) it may have the future it was promised. But right now these problems seem much more substantial than Intel imagined in mid-2015.
    Certainly the claim that something has gone seriously wrong (based on the timing schedule) strikes me as simply common-sense, indisputable.

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  4. #14
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    Totally agree with the above. Hype almost seems like a compensatory mechanism in tech, where the more hype there is about a product the further in advance of launch the worse the product ends up being. It's like "Oh shit we've invested hundreds of millions into this but it's got serious flaws, better create a bunch of hype so we can at least get a bunch of pre sales before everyone realizes it's crap and hopefully keep our jobs long enough to find new ones"

    On the other hand, the best products seem to be those that are kept secret until almost right before launch, then catch everyone off guard with how amazing they are - ie iPhone. Which makes sense because if you have a truly great product the last thing you want is to tip off your competition early.

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  5. #15
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    count, I think the on board memory TSMC is developing for its customers will/could be that product.

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    Last edited by Arthur Hanson; 06-26-2017 at 07:21 PM. Reason: added word could
     

  6. #16
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    count, sometimes touting a product very early in the development cycle is a deliberate tactic to scare off the development or financing of a competing product. Tactics can sometimes be important or even more important than the product itself. Look at the inferior products that have won the battle through tactics instead of attributes.

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  7. #17
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    I get what you are all saying, and you may be correct. I just pointed that there is a hypothesis that could explain everything you are saying (Optane shortage, delayed launch of new products) and that is if Optane is doing really really well.

    Optane is actually a very disruptive tech, it may not be 1000x or even 100x faster/better than NAND, but 10x performance and much lower latency can already do wonders in some cases. Therefore, if nothing is wrong with durability/reliability than it would not be too much of a surprise if the demand was much larger than the supply.

    For NAND which is much more mature, Intel still has a supply problem, why couldn't it be the same case for Optane?

    Intel Warns Partners: Expect Tight SSD Supply Through 2017, With Shipment Priority On Data Center SSDs | CRN Mobile

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  8. #18
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    Intel a global corporation. This is Oregon fucking up again. I lived in Washington County it's a lutheran country club atmosphere and those people say the things nazis say. It lacks the character and integry to succeed in tech. Everyone at intel knew the project would fail and if you didn't than you haven't been paying attention for the last four years.

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  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur Hanson View Post
    count, sometimes touting a product very early in the development cycle is a deliberate tactic to scare off the development or financing of a competing product. Tactics can sometimes be important or even more important than the product itself. Look at the inferior products that have won the battle through tactics instead of attributes.

    I do wonder:

    Intel does have a pattern of spinning big stories to the market, and than disappointing. For example about the IOT, mobile , altera, nand.

    Does it get punished in the stock market for that ? or the reverse happen - creating hype raises the stock by X percent, but disappointing(especially when done while declaring some other thing, like self driving cars), reduces the stock by much less than that X percent, or at all ?

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  10. #20
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    Altera
    IOT
    Mobile,
    McAfee

    I'm probably missing a lot more. Intel's a global corporation those problems are Oregon specific. When Washington County could get the H1B1s things were fine and now they can't they been exposed. I wouldn't want to live in that place and I don't blame people for not wanting to either.

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