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Thread: The "Great Acceleration" and AI Reaching Parity with Humans

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    The "Great Acceleration" and AI Reaching Parity with Humans

    The "Great Acceleration" is at work in AI/ML due to exponential growth over linear growth. Western researches feel it will be seventy years before AI reaches parity and the Asian researchers feel it will be reached in thirty years. The effort in people, organization, collaboration and equipment in this area is increasing at an ever increasing rate when a lot of people are still thinking of linear growth. Compounding is the most powerful force in the world, whether finances or a nuclear reaction, and it's being applied on a massive world wide scale around the world. The total resources of all types being applied to AI/ML is dramatically increasing every year as are the number of approaches from software to hardware, literally attacking the challenges from every angle on a parallel path. Already we are seeing AI beat the best experts in area after area and picking up speed. AI/ML has the unique ability to work with big data that the human mind will never be able to work with unaided by modern technology. For these reasons, we will probably see AI/ML reach parity with humans in thirty years, maybe even less.
    In just a few short years AI/ML will be required tools for almost any task. I give it just five more years before we see widespread use in almost everything to a significant extent. Government regulation will be seen both as a barrier and support of the spread of AI/ML, and the countries that make the right choices will win.
    AI/ML reaching parity in thirty years is a no brainer as is the start of significant penetration in many fields in five years.

    This will be the ultimate market for semis, sensors, MEMS, and semiconductors of all types. Not only do we have to build AI/ML but all the inputs and outputs, communications and coordinate all these actions. This movement will create whole new products, services and markets that will only increase the demand for an ever wider variety of semiconductors and other devices. It will also keep our economy growing even as the workforce ages and shrinks by making sophisticated automation and robotics, while giving us the ability to increase the quality and quantity of medical care while lowering costs if we can get around government regulations that have given the US the most expensive, low quality medical in the world. It is now time to apply the cost reductions and performance increases the tech sector has delivered in numerous areas to medical, government and infrastructure with similar results. AI/ML will make this possible, but as with any great power, it must be handled with care.


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    Last edited by Arthur Hanson; 06-01-2017 at 12:43 PM.

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