You are currently viewing SemiWiki as a guest which gives you limited access to the site. To view blog comments and experience other SemiWiki features you must be a registered member. Registration is fast, simple, and absolutely free so please, join our community today!




Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 12

Thread: AMD 2017 Financial Analyst Day Discussion

  1. #1
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    3,735
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 628
    Given: 1,808

    AMD 2017 Financial Analyst Day Discussion

    The AMD Analyst Day materials are up and there are some interesting nuggets especially on the process side. I can say with all certainty that AMD is in full-on 7nm node mode but the question is which foundry will they use for 7nm and why? Also, will AMD products make a dent in Intel and NVIDIA revenue? AMD stock has dropped 9%+ thus far today, any thoughts as to why? Feel free to email me privately if you prefer.

    PresentersTitlesPresentations
    Lisa SuPresident and Chief Executive OfficerCorporate Strategy
    Mark PapermasterSenior Vice President and Chief Technology OfficerBack in High Performance...To Stay
    Jim AndersonSenior Vice President and General Manager, Computing and Graphics Business GroupHigh-Performance PCs
    Raja KoduriSenior Vice President and Chief Architect, Radeon Technologies GroupRadeon Rising
    Forrest NorrodSenior Vice President and General Manager Enterprise, Embedded, and Semi-Custom Business GroupThe Dawning of a New Era in the Datacenter
    Devinder KumarSenior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerFinancial Roadmap

    1 Not allowed!
    Last edited by Daniel Nenni; 05-17-2017 at 11:00 AM.
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

  2. #2
    Influencer
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Posts
    59
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 38
    Given: 39
    Their 7nm plan is pretty agresive. AMD should finaly get clear process advantage over Intel (Intel is planning at least 2 future generations on 14nm - Coffelake and Cascadelake - since their 10nm and 10nm+ will be failure in terms of performance).

    Threadripper is interesting too. 16 cores (32 threads), more than 3GHz base + turbo... If they will price it at $1000-$1300 then it will be hard hit for Intels's HEDT (and small Xeons).

    On the other hand, their MCM solution is not best... ...without interposer there will be big cache latencies and they are limiting it to just 2S servers... (which might not be major problem, since 2x32 cores in single system is a lot).

    1 Not allowed!
     

  3. #3
    Top Influencer
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    348
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 143
    Given: 83
    All tech stocks dropped today, so AMD's drop was just part of that and maybe also, the fact that RX Vega has been delayed didn't do down to well with the PC enthusiasts.
    AMD will go with Globalfoundries all the way, because of the wafer agreement.
    AMD say Zen2 is on 7nm in 2018 (but knowing Globalfoundries execution that could really be 2019).
    Before that there will be a "Zen refresh" on 14nm+.
    I predict that AMD will make a huge dent in Intel's revenue (mainly in the server market) and very little in NVidia's.

    1 Not allowed!
     

  4. #4
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    3,735
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 628
    Given: 1,808
    The AMD GPUs were manufactured by TSMC up to 28nm and at 14nm they were moved to GF. CPUs were always manufactured by AMD then GF at 28nm and now at GF 14nm. The AMD CPU/GPU chips for the consoles are manufactured at TSMC on 16nm. Here is what Lisa Hsu said on analyst day, your guess is as good as mine:

    Lisa T. Su, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. - CEO
    So look, on the technology question, we are a multi-foundry -- we have a multi-foundry strategy. This generation, we ramped a number of products in 16-nanometer and we ramped a number of products in 14-nanometer. And for all of the products that we had going, it was very, very important, actually, for us to have both of our foundry partners very actively engaged. In 7-nanometer, Mark showed some very, very aggressive road maps. We'll be one of the first to adopt a 7-nanometer for high performance, and we will similarly use 2 foundries. So we will use TSMC as well as GLOBALFOUNDRIES for 7-nanometer. And the key is -- our goal is to use the best that process technology has to offer so that we can innovate, design architecture, all of those other things. And so with our modified Wafer Supply Agreement that we did last year, it does give us the flexibility to use 7-nanometer at both TSMC and GLOBALFOUNDRIES.

    Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) CEO Lisa Su hosts 2017 Financial Analyst Day (Transcript) | Seeking Alpha

    0 Not allowed!
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

  5. #5
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    3,735
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 628
    Given: 1,808
    And this just in, gonna be another rough day for AMD:

    Intel Refutes Rumor of Licensing AMD Graphics Technology
    Intel refuted a rumor spread by a technology Web site saying it is licensing graphics chip technology from AMD. The rumor had pushed up AMD shares by 12% on Tuesday, only to see the stock come crashing down by that amount on Wednesday after AMD management did not offer any mention of such a deal.

    Intel Refutes Rumor of Licensing AMD Graphics Technology - Barron's

    0 Not allowed!
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

  6. #6
    Top Influencer
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    348
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 143
    Given: 83
    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Nenni View Post
    The AMD GPUs were manufactured by TSMC up to 28nm and at 14nm they were moved to GF. CPUs were always manufactured by AMD then GF at 28nm and now at GF 14nm. The AMD CPU/GPU chips for the consoles are manufactured at TSMC on 16nm. Here is what Lisa Hsu said on analyst day, your guess is as good as mine:

    Lisa T. Su, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. - CEO
    So look, on the technology question, we are a multi-foundry -- we have a multi-foundry strategy. This generation, we ramped a number of products in 16-nanometer and we ramped a number of products in 14-nanometer. And for all of the products that we had going, it was very, very important, actually, for us to have both of our foundry partners very actively engaged. In 7-nanometer, Mark showed some very, very aggressive road maps. We'll be one of the first to adopt a 7-nanometer for high performance, and we will similarly use 2 foundries. So we will use TSMC as well as GLOBALFOUNDRIES for 7-nanometer. And the key is -- our goal is to use the best that process technology has to offer so that we can innovate, design architecture, all of those other things. And so with our modified Wafer Supply Agreement that we did last year, it does give us the flexibility to use 7-nanometer at both TSMC and GLOBALFOUNDRIES.

    Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) CEO Lisa Su hosts 2017 Financial Analyst Day (Transcript) | Seeking Alpha
    Yeah, that's interesting. It sounds like AMD don't expect Globalfoundries to have 7nm ready on time. AMD had a quota to meet with the wafer agreement and before this their Carrizo CPUs sold too little to make the quota. So they had to switch manufacture of GPUs and consoles to Globalfoundries to make up for the shortfall. Since, Ryzen seems to be selling much better, they have more flexibility to use other foundries.

    1 Not allowed!
     

  7. #7
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    3,735
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 628
    Given: 1,808
    Here are some random notes from the investor call:

    Gross Margins:
    No one talks about when (if?) AMD will be sustainably profitable any
    longer. There was sporadic profitability when they first sold the
    game console chips to Microsoft XboxOne and Sony PS/4, but have not
    been in the black since. As a result, the analysts are looking at
    revenue growth and gross margins as an indicator of the return to
    profits.

    With the introduction of a refresh of the GPU line (RX500 series) and
    the new Ryzen CPU (and soon APU and server-centric) designs, the
    analysts were expecting gross margins to move from the low 30% to
    "38-40%".

    When AMD said, "Well, in the 2nd quarter, GM will be 32%.", the
    analysts were definitely perplexed (that's even lower than the 33% in
    the first quarter).

    There is a definite tug-of-war between the low margin game console
    chips (Microsoft and Sony are both talking about a product refresh
    later this year), and the newer GPU/CPU designs. So, for the next
    quarter, at least, the lower margin designs will curtail the overall
    financials. You could draw the conclusion that the forecast for
    Ryzen CPU's will be muted, and not bring the GM up.

    Inventory is up significantly:
    I'm not sure the analysts bought into the argument that the
    significant rise in inventory quarter-over-quarter was due to AMD's
    readiness for "additional OEM's building desktops for back-to-school"
    (see below), or whether they over-anticipated sales of Ryzen and GPU's.


    Ryzen:

    So, when will Ryzen contribute significantly to profitability?
    Apparently, not in Q2. In Q1, AMD admitted that the goal was to
    announce the product refresh, and let the DIY market buy parts from
    Amazon and Newegg. "Traditional desktop manufacturers will announce
    in Q2.", according to Lisa Su on the conf call.

    Well, we're halfway through Q2, and the only desktops with Ryzen are
    available from three off-brands... "CyberPowerPC", "CybertronPC", and
    "iBUYPOWER". (Ironically, almost all of these three manufacturers
    desktops with Ryzen CPU's use Nvidia GPU cards.

    Supposedly, Asus and Lenovo have upcoming products to be available
    with Ryzen, but I couldn't find any indication that Dell and HP have
    desktops coming.

    Q2 does not appear to be any more promising, in terms of Ryzen
    contributing significantly to GM and profitability.


    APU's and Naples server parts:
    There were positive comments about 2H2017 releases of Zen core-based
    APU designs for mobile laptops and Naples server CPU's.

    Usually, AMD is aggressive releasing benchmark data vis-a-vis Intel.
    I haven't seen anything about Naples yet, but will keep an eye out for
    an announcement. In the desktop market, the strategy is "comparable
    to mid-range i7, with an aggressive ASP". In the server space, the
    mid-range performance with lower ASP approach doesn't really apply.


    Vega GPU's:

    The AMD high-end Vega GPU announcement later this year will be
    interesting, although Nvidia appears to be on a roll.

    The minor blip in Nvidia momentum when the AMD RX500 series was first
    announced appears to have returned to normalcy. I haven't seen GPU
    market share data lately, but I'm guessing that AMD has not
    significantly moved the needle over the past year... I could be
    wrong. Even so, GPU sales over the past year have not moved AMD to
    higher margins and profitability, so it's really up to Ryzen and Naples.


    Financial monkey business:

    And, finally, although the $$$ amounts aren't major, AMD did pull a
    quick bit of financial trickery... and, their explanation was kinda
    confusing...


    (1) "We have shifted our accounting of production mask sets from
    OpEx to capital."


    The analysts were all over this one... "Why?" "Shouldn't we see
    better OpEx improvements compared to previous quarters, then?"
    "Should that have accelerated reaching profitability?"

    It wasn't clear to me whether all mask sets are now capital or just
    "production" (last revision) mask costs. Capitalizing masks is OK,
    but their explanation of how it will be recorded wasn't clear.


    (2) lots of outstanding share warrants

    One analyst smartly noted that AMD has issued a bunch of share
    warrants to Abu Dhabi (which are able to be cashed in at any time, if
    I recall). He asked whether AMD should be using a different "total
    number of shares" in EPS calculations in the future.

    With the total number of shares to increase significantly in the
    future, that path to profitability will continue to be a difficult one.


    (3) GAAP vs non-GAAP

    And, lastly, I'm still amazed that companies (not just AMD) are able
    to quote non-GAAP results, removing stock option expense from the GAAP
    financials. If it's an expense that is incurred each quarter, it's
    not really a non-recurring item, and shouldn't be part of the non-GAAP
    data.

    Hopefully some of this will be cleared up at the analyst day....

    0 Not allowed!
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

  8. #8
    Top Influencer
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    348
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 143
    Given: 83
    There's a good chance AMD will be profitable in the second quarter. Margins go down probably because there is more low margin console business with the launch of Scorpio, but also profits go up. Revenue will be up 17%.
    IMHO the killer product is Naples. They showed how weak Intel's products are (too few cores and not enough PCIe lanes). A single socket Naples machine out performs a mid range dual socket Xeon. Dropbox seems to already have switched to AMD, with more cloud providers to follow. There are 30 server products to be released this quarter and AMD have seeded 5000 CPUs to OEMs and customers. Customers hate Intel's monopoly in the server market and they hate Intel's arbitrary pricing. This is a quote from a semiaccurate article:
    Customers were not happy about this progressive squeeze and the ones SemiAccurate talked to all claimed to have vocally complained over the years.
    Intel's new Scalable Xeon branding is just a price increase - SemiAccurate

    0 Not allowed!
     

  9. #9
    Influencer
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    67
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 16
    Given: 2
    There is an interesting argument on Seeking Alpha I do not understand. The argument
    is that AMD can't ramp up volume very fast because they do not have enough cash.
    I don't understand how the foundary model accounting works, i.e. when are the
    various payments and revenue recognitions in say a million IC order. Who pays for
    chip failures or defects and when. Can anyone explain how this works.

    1 Not allowed!
     

  10. #10
    Admin Daniel Nenni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Posts
    3,735
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 628
    Given: 1,808
    Quote Originally Posted by smeyer0028 View Post
    There is an interesting argument on Seeking Alpha I do not understand. The argument
    is that AMD can't ramp up volume very fast because they do not have enough cash.
    I don't understand how the foundry model accounting works, i.e. when are the
    various payments and revenue recognitions in say a million IC order. Who pays for
    chip failures or defects and when. Can anyone explain how this works.
    I have done wafer agreements in the past but I do not have direct knowledge of this one. It is complicated by the fact that AMD's major investor (Mubadala Development Company) also owns GlobalFoundries so it is probably not a normal wafer agreement. Given that, I highly doubt GF would withhold wafers from AMD for cash flow reasons.

    In regards to yield, if it is a process yield issue the foundry is responsible, if it is a design yield issue then it is on the fabless company. In regards to Samsung 10nm for example, Samsung had horrible process yield so instead of selling wafers they sold known good die to QCOM.

    I do know that GF 14nm, which is what AMD currently uses, is a copy exact of Samsung 14nm and is yielding quite well for other companies so I highly doubt it is a process yield issue.

    0 Not allowed!
    Now available in print or Kindle: "Mobile Unleashed: The Origin and Evolution of ARM Processors In Our Devices"

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •