Who will Apple partner with at 20nm: TSMC, Intel, Both, or Neither?

[Daniel Nenni]

Ever since Intel announced plans to offer foundry services at 22nm speculation has run rampant on whether Apple will move from Samsung to Intel or TSMC. I think it is a given Apple will, at a minimum, second source wafers as a result of the product conflict with Samsung. Second sourcing also gives Apple bargaining power and the opportunity to work with leading edge silicon.

The question is who will win Apples 20nm business? I must recuse myself but let us take a vote and see if the crowd is right once again.

D.A.N.

[otistd]

D.A.N.
One thing about a second source is you would like to believe if the primary source goes down you can get enough extra capacity to (at least partially) offset the loss. Does Intel have enough extra capacity to take on a major Foundry customer like Apple? Granted Apple is already a big Intel customer, but how would the A6 (?) compete with Intel's own processors for capacity- and what about cost structure? I guess what I'm asking really is "how serious do you think Intel is about the foundry business- are they just testing the waters or ready to take the plunge?" and how does that fit into the "fabless model is dead"?

[Daniel Nenni]

Second sourcing semiconductor designs at the smaller geometries is not as easy as it sounds. There is no compatibility between TSMC 20nm, Intel 20nm, and Samsung 20nm, so you cannot just "move" them over. What I expect Apple to do is to have different products at the different foundries to get better pricing and capacity. A6 at Samsung, A7 at TSMC etc... Samsung has built two fabs just for Apple and is working on a third. TSMC will do the same.

Intel has said they will double 22nm capacity by the end of 2013. I do not expect the PC market to double so that capacity is for Atom SoCs. The Intel foundry business is in support of the Atom and mobile market so yes this is serious. Over the next 5 years Intel will work with strategic foundry customers on Atom based designs. Once successful Intel could certainly compete with the pure-play foundries but I highly doubt it. They have much higher margin business to pursue.

D.A.N.

[otistd]

OK, so TSMC clearly wins if it's between Intel and TSMC- unless Apple decides to do an Atom-based design. But what about GloFo? They could offer the best compatibility with Samsung as a true second source. Or, at least that is the claim from the CP- do you disagree? Or just think that TSMC will win on price and technology? It looks like you don't think GloFo is a serious option from the way you phrased the poll.

[Daniel Nenni]

OK, so TSMC clearly wins if it's between Intel and TSMC- unless Apple decides to do an Atom-based design. But what about GloFo? They could offer the best compatibility with Samsung as a true second source. Or, at least that is the claim from the CP- do you disagree? Or just think that TSMC will win on price and technology? It looks like you don't think GloFo is a serious option from the way you phrased the poll.

I think GloFlo is (1) year behind TSMC at 28nm. I believe they will trail TSMC at 20nm as well. Intel has done us all a favor by challenging TSMC at the process level. TSMC will race to catch them, believe it. The issue with price is how low will Intel go if/when supply outpaces demand?

D.A.N.

[LinkedIn]

INTEL will not build ARM chips. (Full Stop) (.) (lol) But Intel will HELP Apple with "the right commercial agreement" they will not build chips and be sucked by Apple,
Let Apple go to TSMC, intel do not need it if they cannot make the 60% GM. Apple hitting a wall,Tim Cook might talent of surviving and bend to Intel.

[LinkedIn]

With TSMC, there are lots of low cost third-party IP that Apple can fetch for its Ax design for pure low cost and time to market rush. Once Intel starts to release its PDK to outside design houses and more IP available, then Intel would be more attractive due to its technology power over TSMC.
Posted by Joshua Lu

[Daniel Nenni]

With TSMC, there are lots of low cost third-party IP that Apple can fetch for its Ax design for pure low cost and time to market rush. Once Intel starts to release its PDK to outside design houses and more IP available, then Intel would be more attractive due to its technology power over TSMC.
Posted by Joshua Lu

I agree, IP is key for the fabless guys. The ARM ecosystem as an example. Intel has made it clear they will NOT be an open foundry and will only work with strategic partners on Atom designs. This makes complete sense to me. Competing head-to-head with TSMC does not make sense at all. Just my opinion of course. If Apple uses Atom that would be a strategic foundry partner for Intel, absolutely.

[LinkedIn]

Daniel, this is my personal opinion.

Apple and Intel are two Titans fighting on very same market, fighting to delight you, me and the world with their products and features.
Intel is giant IT company, with 100% focus on the IT market segment, Desktops, Notebooks, Netbooks, Ultrabooks, Thin Clients, Servers, Embedded Systems, Data communication, Networking, Digital convergence, Softwares....

And with such profile and leadership position on these market segments makes Intel more likely to be a rival than partner.
Anyway, we never know what's is going on at the back stages, do we?

My best,
Posted by Osnir Gracia

[Daniel Nenni]

Daniel, this is my personal opinion.

Apple and Intel are two Titans fighting on very same market, fighting to delight you, me and the world with their products and features.
Intel is giant IT company, with 100% focus on the IT market segment, Desktops, Notebooks, Netbooks, Ultrabooks, Thin Clients, Servers, Embedded Systems, Data communication, Networking, Digital convergence, Softwares....

And with such profile and leadership position on these market segments makes Intel more likely to be a rival than partner.
Anyway, we never know what's is going on at the back stages, do we?

My best,
Posted by Osnir Gracia

I agree. Apple will be wary of Intel as a competitor from their experience with Samsung. Intel will also want Apple to switch from ARM to Atom which may be a problem.

I don't think Intel will really compete with TSMC as a foundry but it is certainly a healthy competition for the rest of us in the semiconductor ecosystem and fun to watch!

D.A.N.