TSMC 20nm Challenges!

Now that the 28nm challenges are dead
It is time to look ahead
The tabloid pundits may not agree
But Moore’s law again you will see
The semiconductor ecosystem is humming
(2X gate density -20%+ performance-20%+ power savings)
The 20nm design starts are coming!

Okay, I’m really bad at poetry. Gambling however, I do pretty well. Las Vegas is my favorite destination, a mere 6 hour Porsche drive from Danville. It’s not just the math of gambling that’s intriguing, it’s also how you read a person, a play, or situation. I literally won all of my bets on 28nm and 20nm looks like another great gambling opportunity. I have two more kids to get through college so put your money where your mouth is.

Here is why the 20nm challenges will be vanquished in record time: GREED, simple as that! As I mentioned before, the semiconductor ecosystem consists of a very large crowd of very smart people with very big egos who really like making money (me for example). Whomever solves the 20nm design and manufacturing puzzles first not only gets fame, they also get fortune. Talk about motivation. And who doesn't like solving puzzles?

20nm blogs-white papers-webinars are in play
20nm test chips arriving every day
40nm we learned how to yield
28nm we yearned for capacity
20nm will be an even bigger payday!

Better? Intel has done us all a really big favor. They are shooting their mouth off, motivating the masses, because who in their right mind would NOT want to prove Intel wrong? Especially if you can make money while doing it. Sign me up!

Here is the biggest bet: What will the TSMC 20nm ramp look like?

Remember, even though the tabloid press had 28nm “not yielding at all” and “shut down for weeks” in Q1 2012, the ramp thus far has beat expectations. The questions are:

1. Will 20nm be on par with 28nm?
2. When will the 20nm ramp officially start?
3. How far behind the Intel 22nm SoC mobile version will it be?

According to the SemiWiki crowd, Apple will be at TSMC 20nm:

Who will Apple partner with at 20nm?

1. TSMC 38.04%
2. Intel 25.00%
3. Neither (stay at Samsung) 19.57%
4. Both 17.39%

So you might want to factor that extra motivation into your gambling equation.

My trip this week was off a bit due to the national Taiwan holiday on Tuesday so here I sit in the EVA Executive Lounge on a sunny Saturday afternoon.

Don’t feel bad for me there's an open bar
Don’t feel bad for me I have a beautiful car
Don’t feel bad for me this week I'm fishing afar